PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#2,15452.8
TX-37Democratic · D+49.3 · 31.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap36.7
Cash vulnerability0.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-37 scores 52.8 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-37 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+49.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $6.2M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $6,227,828 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#2,15652.6Tie of 5
FL-14Democratic · D+7.7 · 19.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline10.7
Primary feasibility17.9
AIPAC support83.4
Incumbent alignment gap66.0
Cash vulnerability22.9
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-14 scores 53.1 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, moving the score -0.5 to 52.6.
District
FL-14 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+7.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.5M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,501,762 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,15652.6Tie of 5
MA-02Democratic · D+23.7 · 29.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline74.7
Primary feasibility24.9
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap25.1
Cash vulnerability57.8
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MA-02 scores 52.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-08-12, moving the score -0.1 to 52.6.
District
MA-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+23.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $332.1K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $332,100 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,15652.6Tie of 5
WA-06Democratic · D+19.3 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline57.1
Primary feasibility57.8
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap27.2
Cash vulnerability65.8
Deep blue4 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WA-06 scores 52.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score -0.1 to 52.6.
District
WA-06 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+19.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $233.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $233,739 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,16152.5Tie of 2
AZ-07Democratic · D+22.1 · 0.7 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline68.5
Primary feasibility53.4
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap14.6
Cash vulnerability53.4
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AZ-07 scores 52.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-01, leaving the score unchanged.
District
AZ-07 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+22.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $428.0K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $427,977 cash on hand through 2026-07-01.
#2,16152.5Tie of 2
SC-01Republican · R+13.0 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness48.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability90.7
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
SC-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 40.2. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 46.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +12.3 to 52.5.
District
SC-01 recorded a R+13.0 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $664,636 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,16352.4Tie of 6
CA-31Democratic · D+16.9 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline47.6
Primary feasibility54.3
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap52.8
Cash vulnerability64.2
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-31 scores 52.4 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-31 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+16.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $259.8K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $259,803 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,16352.4Tie of 6
CA-41Republican · R+5.9 · 33.5 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness76.3
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability26.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-41 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 62.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 72.5 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +11.2. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score -10.0 to 52.4.
District
CA-41 recorded a R+5.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $262,136 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,16352.4Tie of 6
TN House 18Republican · R+7.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness70.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 18 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 52.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+7.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,17052.1Tie of 4
NY-03Democratic · R+4.3 · 8.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility21.0
AIPAC support88.2
Incumbent alignment gap78.4
Cash vulnerability0.0
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-03 scores 52.1 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+-4.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $5.7M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $5,679,950 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,17651.8Tie of 5
CA-13Democratic · R+5.4 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility37.8
AIPAC support75.0
Incumbent alignment gap80.1
Cash vulnerability19.1
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-13 scores 51.8 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-13 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+-5.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,072,111 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,17651.8Tie of 5
MA-06 · open seatDemocratic · D+20.7 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline62.7
Primary feasibility26.2
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Deep blue2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MA-06 is an open seat: the incumbent has filed for the 2026 Senate race. V0.11 scores it on the structural baseline alone at 51.8 (+2.7 from v0.10).
District
MA-06 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+20.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.9M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,850,338 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#2,17651.8Tie of 5
MI-12Democratic · D+38.0 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility24.3
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap1.6
Cash vulnerability8.2
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MI-12 scores 51.4 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.4 to 51.8.
District
MI-12 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+38.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.9M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,909,639 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,18351.5Tie of 3
GA-02Democratic · D+7.6 · 33.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline10.5
Primary feasibility22.2
AIPAC support66.3
Incumbent alignment gap69.9
Cash vulnerability52.4
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA-02 scores 51.5 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
GA-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+7.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $447.8K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $447,808 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,18651.4
WA-10Democratic · D+18.0 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline52.0
Primary feasibility43.0
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap64.2
Cash vulnerability43.4
Deep blue4 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WA-10 scores 51.4 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, leaving the score unchanged.
District
WA-10 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+18.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $677.5K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $677,498 cash on hand through 2026-07-15.
#2,18951.1Tie of 2
NY-14Democratic · D+31.8 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility22.1
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap6.7
Cash vulnerability0.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-14 scores 51.1 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-14 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+31.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $16.0M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $15,960,932 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,18951.1Tie of 2
GA House 83Democratic · D+26.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline84.8
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 83 scores 51.1 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+26.2 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+26.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,19151.0Tie of 2
FL-25Democratic · D+5.3 · 21.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline1.3
Primary feasibility18.6
AIPAC support80.1
Incumbent alignment gap72.4
Cash vulnerability21.5
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-25 scores 52.8 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, moving the score -1.8 to 51.0.
District
FL-25 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+5.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,057,309 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#2,19151.0Tie of 2
IA-03Republican · R+4.4 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness82.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability7.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IA-03 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 51.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 59.3 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IA-03 recorded a R+4.4 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $3,568,369 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,19350.9Tie of 6
CT-04Democratic · D+23.4 · 17.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline73.4
Primary feasibility15.7
AIPAC support55.1
Incumbent alignment gap61.1
Cash vulnerability14.9
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CT-04 scores 50.9 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CT-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+23.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.5M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,517,677 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,19350.9Tie of 6
MI-04Republican · R+5.5 · 15.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness77.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability17.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MI-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 50.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 58.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.8 to 50.9.
District
MI-04 recorded a R+5.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,606,060 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,19950.7
CA-38Democratic · D+16.1 · 23.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline44.3
Primary feasibility24.5
AIPAC support63.8
Incumbent alignment gap40.5
Cash vulnerability54.0
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-38 scores 50.6 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +0.1 to 50.7.
District
CA-38 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+16.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $425.8K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $425,787 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#2,20050.6Tie of 6
CA-26Democratic · D+13.2 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline32.7
Primary feasibility29.8
AIPAC support63.9
Incumbent alignment gap59.3
Cash vulnerability37.5
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-26 scores 50.4 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +0.2 to 50.6.
District
CA-26 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+13.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $942.4K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $942,357 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#2,20050.6Tie of 6
NH-02Democratic · D+3.6 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility36.2
AIPAC support88.1
Incumbent alignment gap53.4
Cash vulnerability13.4
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NH-02 scores 50.8 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score +0.0 to 50.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-08-19, moving the score -0.2 to 50.6.
District
NH-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+3.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.5M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,514,390 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 63.8% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#2,20950.4Tie of 2
ME-01Democratic · D+21.6 · 17.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline66.4
Primary feasibility32.1
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap29.7
Cash vulnerability53.6
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
ME-01 scores 50.4 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
ME-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+21.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $423.1K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $423,112 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,20950.4Tie of 2
CA-S3Democratic · D+20.1 · 5.5 years in Senate · next election 2028
Blue baseline60.5
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap55.2
Cash vulnerability0.0
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-S3 scores 50.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+20.1 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
CA recorded a D+20.1 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $7,290,814 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,21150.3Tie of 3
NC-11Republican · R+9.5 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness62.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability50.6
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC-11 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 50.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 58.5 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +8.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NC-11 recorded a R+9.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $485,744 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,21150.3Tie of 3
NJ-06Democratic · D+6.4 · 39.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline5.7
Primary feasibility4.5
AIPAC support91.6
Incumbent alignment gap58.1
Cash vulnerability10.6
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NJ-06 scores 50.3 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NJ-06 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+6.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,066,967 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,21150.3Tie of 3
PA-10Republican · R+5.2 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness79.1
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability12.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-10 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 50.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 58.5 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.6. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
PA-10 recorded a R+5.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,845,976 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,21450.2Tie of 8
WA-S3Democratic · D+18.2 · 33.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
Blue baseline52.9
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap61.9
Cash vulnerability23.2
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WA-S3 scores 50.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+18.2 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
WA recorded a D+18.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,718,051 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,22250.1
NV-03Democratic · R+0.7 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility8.2
AIPAC support82.2
Incumbent alignment gap80.9
Cash vulnerability6.6
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NV-03 scores 51.7 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -1.6 to 50.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NV-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+-0.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.7M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,689,228 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 91.8% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#2,22350.0
HI House 5Democratic · D+23.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline75.6
Primary feasibility17.3
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 5 scores 50.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+23.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+23.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,22449.9Tie of 4
CA-09Democratic · R+1.8 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility22.6
AIPAC support88.5
Incumbent alignment gap64.8
Cash vulnerability1.2
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-09 scores 49.9 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-09 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+-1.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $4.7M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $4,739,488 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,22849.7
CA-28Democratic · D+26.9 · 17.0 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline87.7
Primary feasibility12.9
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap31.2
Cash vulnerability6.7
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-28 scores 49.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-28 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+26.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.7M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,674,296 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,24448.8Tie of 5
WI-01Republican · R+4.5 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness82.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WI-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 48.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 56.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +5.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, leaving the score unchanged.
District
WI-01 recorded a R+4.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $6,177,414 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,24448.8Tie of 5
GA Senate 40Democratic · D+25.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline81.2
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA Senate 40 scores 48.8 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+25.3 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+25.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,25248.6Tie of 3
FL-10Democratic · D+22.7 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline70.8
Primary feasibility39.3
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap21.5
Cash vulnerability29.5
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-10 scores 48.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, moving the score +0.1 to 48.6.
District
FL-10 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+22.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.3M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,332,681 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,25248.6Tie of 3
VA-01Republican · R+4.9 · 18.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness80.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability3.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
VA-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 48.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 56.6 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score -0.1 to 48.6.
District
VA-01 recorded a R+4.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $4,269,831 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,25248.6Tie of 3
OH-S1Republican · R+11.2 · 1.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
General-election competitiveness55.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability44.7
State Democratic primary contestation51.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OH-S1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 48.6 with 85% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability, and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
State
OH recorded a R+11.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $639,133 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,25748.4Tie of 5
HI Senate 6Democratic · D+25.1 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
Blue baseline80.4
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI Senate 6 scores 48.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+25.1 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+25.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,26248.3
CA-S1Democratic · D+20.1 · 1.7 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline60.5
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap44.8
Cash vulnerability0.0
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-S1 scores 48.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+20.1 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
CA recorded a D+20.1 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $10,252,461 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,26348.2Tie of 6
AZ-04Democratic · D+6.7 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline6.7
Primary feasibility30.4
AIPAC support68.5
Incumbent alignment gap72.5
Cash vulnerability19.7
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AZ-04 scores 48.2 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-01, leaving the score unchanged.
District
AZ-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+6.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.0M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,020,289 cash on hand through 2026-07-01.
#2,26348.2Tie of 6
IN House 39Republican · R+7.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness70.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 39 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 48.2 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+7.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,26348.2Tie of 6
MO House 56Republican · R+8.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness66.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 56 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 48.2 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+8.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,26948.1
OR-06Democratic · D+11.4 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline25.5
Primary feasibility46.5
AIPAC support59.5
Incumbent alignment gap46.6
Cash vulnerability45.6
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OR-06 scores 48.1 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OR-06 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+11.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $611.1K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $611,103 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,27147.9Tie of 3
CA-22Republican · R+5.8 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness76.7
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability8.6
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-22 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 47.9. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 55.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-22 recorded a R+5.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $3,365,587 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,27147.9Tie of 3
KY-03Democratic · D+18.9 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline55.8
Primary feasibility15.9
AIPAC support66.3
Incumbent alignment gap40.9
Cash vulnerability22.0
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY-03 scores 50.0 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -2.1 to 47.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
KY-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+18.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.8M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,813,760 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 84.1% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#2,27147.9Tie of 3
GA House 44Republican · R+13.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness45.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 44 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 47.9 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+13.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,28047.6Tie of 2
GA House 147Republican · R+13.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness44.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 147 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 47.6 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+13.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,28047.6Tie of 2
TN House 75Republican · R+9.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness62.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 75 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 47.6 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+9.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.