MO Senate 11 · MODEL v1.14 · 2 INPUTS MEASURED
MO Senate 11 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 56.8 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
THE MEMBER
Joe Nicola holds MO state Senate district 11 as a Republican. The Open States roster is the identity source; the seat is next regularly contested in 2028 on a 4-year term.
ocd-person/a93088fa-ad80-49de-aa94-d03da0add0bcTHE DISTRICT
The official state returns record R+4.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
SCORE ANATOMY
The official state returns record R+4.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. A tied district begins at 100 and each Republican margin point subtracts four points.
Not in this score
State campaign-finance filings are not retained, so the weight is omitted.
Not in this score
County-level local context is joined to House districts only, so the weight is omitted.
Share of the state's latest retained state-legislative Democratic primaries that drew more than one named candidate, scaled so 40% contested equals 100.
CURRENT TERM
Formula renormalized(0.45 × competitiveness + 0.20 × cash vulnerability + 0.15 × local context + 0.20 × state contestation) × (0.6 + 0.4 × 0.65)
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger