CA-31 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED
CA-31 scores 52.4 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
THE MEMBER
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. (born 1971) has served in the U.S. House since 2019-01-03. The retained record shows 3.6 cumulative years of House service, 1.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 1 district change, and 1 material service break.
C001123THE DISTRICT
CA-31 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+16.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $259.8K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $259,803 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 47.6 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+16.9.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 54.3 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 0.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 52.8-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-06-30) reports $259,803 cash on hand, replacing the $259,803 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record