SOURCE LEDGER

What we have, and what we do not.

Start with the seven inputs that affect the public ranking. The broader release ledger and exact retained snapshots remain available below for audit.

Ranked seats · model v1.145,726

House 430 · Senate 100 · governors 50 · state legislative 5,146

House cash on hand411 / 430

19 House seats without a reported value

Source cutoffAug 4, 2026

Published release facts, not live feeds

WHAT FEEDS THE SCORE

Seven House inputs, two routes

Coverage means a usable numeric component is present. It does not mean every desirable historical or challenger-level field has been collected. Counts on these cards are House seats; Senate, governor, and state-legislative coverage is described below and on the Method page.

District partisanship

430 / 430

Retained 2024 presidential district results

Creates the Democratic blue baseline and Republican general-election competitiveness.

Primary feasibility

212 / 212

Published election facts and retained primary evidence

V0.9 directly measures 22 linked 2024 incumbent contests, including RI-01 through a reviewed alias; other seats retain the earlier partial estimate.

AIPAC support

202 / 212

FEC-derived AIPAC-network evidence

Used only on the Democratic AIPAC-supported route; unavailable values stay missing.

Incumbent alignment

205 / 212

119th House Left and Palestine trackers

Used only for Democratic incumbents; 210 are full and two are partial observations.

Cash vulnerability

411 / 430

FEC candidate summary snapshot named by the refresh pointer; the release aggregate is retained where the snapshot has no row

Affects both routes and is refreshed by rapid:refresh. Seats without a snapshot row keep the release aggregate.

Local context

4 / 430

County CVAP, turnout, registration, demographics, 2024 House results, and exact CD119 at-large geography

Four at-large seats have exact county-universe context. Split-county seats remain unchanged.

State primary contestation

40 / 218

Retained state-legislative Democratic primary catalogs that record uncontested contests

Used only on the Republican route as state-level context; six states carry a value and the rest omit the weight.

Member and service history

Context, not scored

House Clerk and Congress Legislators

Provides identity, biography, and tenure context; it does not independently change rank.

See every weight, formula, and missing-data rule →

INDEX FINANCE PROJECTION

One published finance row per ranked seat

The v0.3 through v0.9 layers project the incumbent finance aggregate from rel_full_20260804_v2 onto the 430 ranked House seats. Since v0.10 the active score refreshes cash from the FEC candidate summary snapshot; the release aggregate below remains the retained fallback. Cash changes the score; receipts and disbursements are displayed as context and do not receive separate weights.

427 cash values in the release aggregate3 not reported in the release aggregatecf00b2bcfaf0… projectiona908273c32fe… retained file

RELEASE COVERAGE

Open a domain for exact scopes

These are factual-release coverage records, not score weights. Counts inside different scopes should not be added together as if they shared one denominator.

District demographicsCensus estimates and margins of error3 scopes3 need attention

Scope	Status	Observed / expected	Unavailable or incompatible	Evidence
B01002_001E · 2020-20241 ledger record	partial	437 / 441	None recordedQuarantined 0 · incompatible 4	1 input snapshot
B01003_001E · 2020-20241 ledger record	partial	437 / 441	None recordedQuarantined 0 · incompatible 4	1 input snapshot
B19013_001E · 2020-20241 ledger record	partial	437 / 441	None recordedQuarantined 0 · incompatible 4	1 input snapshot

election 2020Published release coverage1 scope1 need attention

Scope	Status	Observed / expected	Unavailable or incompatible	Evidence
2020 election51 ledger records	not collected	0 / 51	not collected: 51Quarantined 0 · incompatible 0	1 input snapshot

election 2022Published release coverage

RAPID ACQUISITION

Rapid House-primary acquisition

This file-backed workstream remains separate from the factual-release ledger. V0.9 uses only the 22 official 2024 contests that pass incumbent identity (exact, documented, or reviewed alias) and CD119 district-key joins.

48 state-cycle scopesRetained source files and parsing progress50 parsed contests · 6 source absentOnly the separately gated 2024 subset enters v0.9

Scope	Status	Parsed / target districts	Retained artifacts	Missing or blocked
AL · 2022	parsed	Parsed 1 / 2; source absent 1	1	source absent: 1
AL · 2024	parsed	Parsed 2 / 2	2	Not recorded
AL · 2026	future event	Parsed 0 / 2	0	future event: 2
DE · 2022	source absent	Parsed 0 / 1; source absent 1	1	source absent no disposition inference: 1
DE · 2024	parsed	Parsed 1 / 1	1	Not recorded
DE · 2026	future event	Parsed 0 / 1	0	future event: 1
HI · 2022	parsed	Parsed 2 / 2	1	Not recorded
HI · 2024	parsed	Parsed 2 / 2	1	Not recorded
HI · 2026	parsed	Parsed 2 / 2	1	Not recorded
IN · 2022	parsed	Parsed 2 / 2	2

LOCAL CONTEXT INTAKE

Broad intake with a narrow active adapter

These retained county and state-legislative inputs are independently hash-verified. Two subsets affect the Priority Index: the exact at-large county rows, and a state-level Democratic contestation share from the state-legislative catalogs that record uncontested contests. Office catalogs remain separate.

18 retained context setsCounty demographics and elections, state-legislative primaries, and Indiana, New Mexico, and North Carolina local-office catalogs6 states feed contestationSeparate from released coverage

Context set	Scope	Coverage	Score use
2022 county House context (research fallback)`rapid-county-house-results-2022-projection-v1`	2022 House county aggregates; strict TOTAL rows in 41 state archives	aggregateRows: 8948 · exactCountyCount: 2260 · stateCount: 38 · formulaEligibleRows: 0 Cycles through 2022	Excluded — 0 eligible rows
Alabama state-legislative primary context`rapid-alabama-state-legislative-primary-results-v1`	Alabama 2022 candidate-bearing state House and Senate primary contests	reportedPartyContests: 60 · candidateRows: 148 · candidateVotes: 564383 · inferredNoContestRows: 0 · formulaEligibleContests: 0 Cycles through 2022	Excluded — 0 eligible rows
County House context (research fallback)`rapid-county-house-results-projection-v1`	2024 House county aggregates; strict TOTAL rows in 41 state archives	aggregateRows: 13076 · exactCountyCount: 2609 · stateCount: 40 · formulaEligibleRows: 0 Cycles through 2024	Excluded — 0 eligible rows
County registration and turnout context`rapid-county-election-context-projection-v1`	EAVS county rows for 2022 and 2024	countyCycleRows: 5946 · exactCountyRows2022: 2974 · exactCountyRows2024: 2972 · formulaEligibleRows: 0 Cycles through 2024	Excluded — 0 eligible rows

ACTIVE V0.9

Coverage-scaled Republican route, direct primary evidence, and exact county context

V0.9 removes the flat Republican-route cap, adds a state-level Democratic primary contestation component, and resolves RI-01 through a reviewed alias. The four exact at-large local-context rows remain active.

House v0.9

22 direct primary / 212 Democratic

40 of 218 Republican seats carry state contestation · 3 carry exact local context · Republican maximum 78.6

RI-01 activates through a reviewed alias (59.6 → 55.9). 0 identity rows remain unresolved. 213 seats reproduce v0.8 exactly; the largest movement is 21.8 points. No split-county allocation or winner inference is used.

State Democratic primary contestation

6 states

GA 2026: 79.3 · HI 2024: 100 · IN 2024: 24.5 · MO 2024: 32 · OH 2026: 51 · TN 2024: 40.3

825 of 2109 retained Democratic state-legislative contests drew more than one named candidate across 12 catalogs. 13 of 28 state-cycle rows are comparable; catalogs that retain contested primaries only are ineligible.

Exact at-large local context

4 seats

DE-AL 49.6 (100% weight) · ND-AL 63.3 (70% weight) · SD-AL 44.7 (100% weight) · WY-AL 59.7 (100% weight)

County turnout, registration, demographics, and the House comparison apply only where every county closes against the current Census universe.

Indiana local offices

816 contests

officeCategories: 12 · officeRows: 682 · partyContests: 816 · candidateRows: 1520 · sourceMarkedWinnerCandidates: 1049

Catalog only: current-holder identity and a local-office scoring method are not collected, and no winner is inferred.

North Carolina local offices

1095 contests

officeFamilies: 7 · officeContests: 1095 · democraticContests: 228 · republicanContests: 546 · nonpartisanContests: 321 · candidateRows: 3758 · candidateVotes: 12273926

Catalog only: current-holder identity and a local-office scoring method are not collected, and no winner is inferred.

New Mexico county offices

581 contests

officeFamilies: 6 · officeContests: 581 · democraticContests: 271 · republicanContests: 302 · libertarianContests: 8 · candidateRows: 926 · candidateVotes: 1967348 · quarantinedContests: 8

Catalog only: current-holder identity and a local-office scoring method are not collected, and no winner is inferred.

SENATE V0.1

Senate seats scored on the same two routes

The 100 sitting senators are scored from the Congress Legislators roster, the statewide 2024 presidential result, the FEC candidate summary snapshot, the 119th Senate sheets of the alignment trackers, and state Democratic primary contestation. No Senate primary evidence is retained, so primary feasibility is omitted rather than estimated.

Senate v0.1

100 seats · 35 up in 2026

98 cash values from fec-candidate-summary-2026-20260924 (latest filing through 2026-08-26) · 47 alignment values · 8 state contestation values

Democratic-caucus route leaders: MD-S1 76.8 (2030) · VT-S3 71.9 (2028) · MD-S3 68.3 (2028) · VT-S1 65.1 (2030) · MA-S2 61.1 (2026). Republican-held flip leaders: WI-S3 65.8 (2028) · NC-S3 65.5 (2028) · PA-S1 64.1 (2030) · ME-S2 59.5 (2026) · NC-S2 53.8 (2026).

State legislatures

7,344 legislators

51 jurisdictions · 100 chambers · 3,236 Democratic · 4,032 Republican · 75 independent or nonpartisan · 406 multi-member districts

Open States roster snapshot 2026-09-24 (CC0). 339 Democratic holders in 10 catalog states match a candidate in their latest retained Democratic primary; 74 do not. 5146 seats in AK, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, MA, MD, ME, MO, MT, NC, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY are ranked from 6520 official general-election contests retained from each state's election authority; the seat's own most recent margin is the district baseline. 2,057 seats in other states wait for their returns.

SOURCE INVENTORY

Publishers and retained snapshots

Snapshots are the full active-release snapshot inventory; a source can have zero snapshots in this inventory.

acssrc_acs_2024official3 snapshots

Open publisher homepage ↗

Snapshot	Dates	License / usage	Checksum / parser
snap_acs_v2_acs_2024_5yr_acs-b01002_04784637609550868d9da7321e7a947b34e0a10b654dbf6d	Published: Not publishedRetrieved: Jul 29, 2026	public-domainapproved	`047846376095…`acs-direct-table-v2
snap_acs_v2_acs_2024_5yr_acs-b01003_38d1a992bb058d184009b10b9b34987279aee575e4323165	Published: Not publishedRetrieved: Jul 29, 2026	public-domainapproved	`38d1a992bb05…`acs-direct-table-v2
snap_acs_v2_acs_2024_5yr_acs-b19013_b25a176b0e6c339b6f3a2a0d3d8446bf06f5f080b4395993	Published: Not publishedRetrieved: Jul 29, 2026	public-domainapproved	`b25a176b0e6c…`acs-direct-table-v2

United States Congress Committee Membershipsrc_full_assignmentseditorial1 snapshot

Open publisher homepage ↗

Scope	Status	Observed / expected	Unavailable or incompatible	Evidence
category funding532 ledger records	complete	3192 / 3192	None recordedQuarantined 0 · incompatible 0	4 input snapshots
category funding9 ledger records	unavailable	0 / 9	not reported: 9Quarantined 0 · incompatible 0	1 input snapshot
organization funding532 ledger records	complete	408 / 408	None recordedQuarantined 0 · incompatible 0	1 input snapshot
organization funding9 ledger records	unavailable	0 / 9	not reported: 9Quarantined 0 · incompatible 0	1 input snapshot
outside spending funding532 ledger records	complete	532 / 532	None recordedQuarantined 0 · incompatible 0	1 input snapshot
outside spending funding9 ledger records	unavailable	0 / 9	not reported: 9Quarantined 0 · incompatible 0	1 input snapshot
summary funding532 ledger records	complete	532 / 532	None recordedQuarantined 0 · incompatible 0	4 input snapshots
summary funding9 ledger records	unavailable	0 / 9	not reported: 9Quarantined 0 · incompatible 0	1 input snapshot

Scope	Status	Observed / expected	Unavailable or incompatible	Evidence
2024 election50 ledger records	complete	50 / 50	None recordedQuarantined 0 · incompatible 0	1 input snapshot
2024 election1 ledger record	not collected	0 / 1	not collected: 1Quarantined 0 · incompatible 0	1 input snapshot

Loading the record

What we have, and what we do not.

Seven House inputs, two routes

District partisanship

Primary feasibility

AIPAC support

Incumbent alignment

Cash vulnerability

Local context

State primary contestation

Member and service history

One published finance row per ranked seat

Open a domain for exact scopes

Rapid House-primary acquisition

Broad intake with a narrow active adapter

Coverage-scaled Republican route, direct primary evidence, and exact county context

House v0.9

State Democratic primary contestation

Exact at-large local context

Indiana local offices

North Carolina local offices

New Mexico county offices

Senate seats scored on the same two routes

Senate v0.1

State legislatures

Publishers and retained snapshots