MA-09 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED
MA-09 scores 53.0 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-08-12, leaving the score unchanged.
THE MEMBER
William R. Keating (born 1952) has served in the U.S. House since 2011-01-05. The retained record shows 15.6 cumulative years of House service, 15.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 1 district change, and 0 material service breaks.
K000375THE DISTRICT
MA-09 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+10.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $510.1K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $510,082 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 23.1 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+10.8.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 32.9 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 68.5 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 59.2-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-08-12) reports $495,522 cash on hand, replacing the $510,082 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record