PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#2,00558.5Tie of 3
HI-S3Democratic · D+22.9 · 13.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
Blue baseline71.4
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap49.5
Cash vulnerability14.8
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI-S3 scores 58.5 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+22.9 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
HI recorded a D+22.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $2,527,560 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,00858.4
HI-S1Democratic · D+22.9 · 13.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline71.4
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap39.6
Cash vulnerability27.3
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI-S1 scores 58.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+22.9 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
HI recorded a D+22.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,420,217 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,00958.3Tie of 2
CA-46Democratic · D+17.7 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline50.9
Primary feasibility26.0
AIPAC support82.2
Incumbent alignment gap66.0
Cash vulnerability15.2
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-46 scores 58.3 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-46 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+17.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.5M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,479,554 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,01158.1Tie of 5
MA-08Democratic · D+26.4 · 24.7 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline85.7
Primary feasibility13.1
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap49.2
Cash vulnerability44.6
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MA-08 scores 55.9 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-08-12, moving the score +2.2 to 58.1.
District
MA-08 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+26.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.2M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,241,118 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,01658.0Tie of 2
WA-07Democratic · D+75.0 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility28.5
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap17.8
Cash vulnerability22.6
Deep blue4 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WA-07 scores 57.8 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.2 to 58.0.
District
WA-07 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+75.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.9M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,884,718 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,01857.9
MO-05Democratic · D+23.1 · 21.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline72.5
Primary feasibility0.0
AIPAC support80.1
Incumbent alignment gap50.4
Cash vulnerability32.0
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO-05 scores 59.7 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -1.8 to 57.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MO-05 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+23.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,143,055 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 100.0% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#2,01957.8Tie of 5
TN House 53Democratic · D+29.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline96.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 53 scores 57.8 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+29.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+29.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,02457.7Tie of 3
HI-01Democratic · D+24.7 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline78.9
Primary feasibility8.0
AIPAC support67.4
Incumbent alignment gap66.8
Cash vulnerability46.1
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI-01 scores 62.0 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -5.1 to 56.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-19, moving the score +0.8 to 57.7.
District
HI-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+24.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $773.6K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $773,638 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 92.0% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#2,02757.5
MA-S1Democratic · D+24.9 · 13.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline79.6
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap24.0
Cash vulnerability6.2
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MA-S1 scores 57.5 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+24.9 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
MA recorded a D+24.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $3,754,333 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,02857.4Tie of 15
NJ-05Democratic · D+1.5 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility19.6
AIPAC support100.0
Incumbent alignment gap82.5
Cash vulnerability0.0
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NJ-05 scores 57.4 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NJ-05 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+1.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $12.8M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $12,773,075 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,02857.4Tie of 15
VT-ALDemocratic · D+31.8 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap25.7
Cash vulnerability45.1
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
VT-AL scores 66.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -9.1 to 57.6. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, moving the score -0.2 to 57.4.
District
VT-AL had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+31.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $598.6K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $598,648 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 100.0% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#2,02857.4Tie of 15
GA House 48Republican · R+9.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness61.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 48 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 57.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+9.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,04357.3
NY-06Democratic · D+6.4 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline5.6
Primary feasibility29.0
AIPAC support94.5
Incumbent alignment gap57.5
Cash vulnerability34.2
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-06 scores 57.3 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-06 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+6.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.0M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,034,068 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,04457.2Tie of 2
AL-07Democratic · D+23.4 · 15.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline73.4
Primary feasibility7.4
AIPAC support78.7
Incumbent alignment gap64.7
Cash vulnerability6.2
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AL-07 scores 57.9 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -0.7 to 57.2. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, leaving the score unchanged.
District
AL-07 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+23.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.8M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,768,636 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 92.6% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#2,04457.2Tie of 2
TX-20Democratic · D+21.3 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline65.1
Primary feasibility46.4
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap36.0
Cash vulnerability75.5
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-20 scores 57.2 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-20 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+21.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $154.4K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $154,380 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,04657.1Tie of 8
MD-08Democratic · D+56.5 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility19.6
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap38.7
Cash vulnerability0.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MD-08 scores 57.1 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MD-08 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+56.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $7.9M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $7,893,447 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,05457.0Tie of 2
MN-05Democratic · D+61.9 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility32.7
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap4.2
Cash vulnerability28.5
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MN-05 scores 56.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, moving the score +0.5 to 57.0.
District
MN-05 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+61.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.6M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,572,633 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,05457.0Tie of 2
NC House 44Democratic · D+24.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline78.4
Primary feasibility38.2
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC House 44 scores 57.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+24.6 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+24.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,05656.9
NY-19Democratic · D+1.8 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility33.8
AIPAC support100.0
Incumbent alignment gap65.6
Cash vulnerability9.8
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-19 scores 56.9 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-19 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+1.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.2M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,190,954 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,05756.8Tie of 5
MO Senate 11Republican · R+4.7 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness81.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 11 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 56.8 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+4.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,06256.7
CO-08Republican · R+1.8 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness92.7
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability5.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CO-08 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 56.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 65.9 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CO-08 recorded a R+1.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $3,880,463 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,06356.6Tie of 3
MN-03Democratic · D+21.3 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline65.0
Primary feasibility52.6
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap43.3
Cash vulnerability54.1
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MN-03 scores 56.6 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MN-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+21.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $413.0K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $413,021 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,06356.6Tie of 3
GA House 42Democratic · D+26.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline86.4
Primary feasibility17.8
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 42 scores 56.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+26.6 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+26.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,06356.6Tie of 3
MO Senate 15Republican · R+4.8 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness80.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 15 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 56.6 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+4.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,06656.5Tie of 3
NY-18Democratic · D+3.3 · 3.9 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility31.1
AIPAC support100.0
Incumbent alignment gap64.6
Cash vulnerability10.3
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-18 scores 56.5 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-18 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+3.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,116,479 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,06656.5Tie of 3
TX-29Democratic · D+20.4 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline61.6
Primary feasibility51.6
AIPAC support52.5
Incumbent alignment gap39.7
Cash vulnerability69.8
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-29 scores 56.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-29 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+20.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $201.0K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $200,973 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,07256.1Tie of 3
NV-01Democratic · D+2.3 · 15.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility24.1
AIPAC support94.7
Incumbent alignment gap62.6
Cash vulnerability28.6
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NV-01 scores 56.1 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NV-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+2.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.3M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,337,525 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,07256.1Tie of 3
WI-02Democratic · D+40.1 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.2
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap24.3
Cash vulnerability37.6
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WI-02 scores 62.1 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -6.0 to 56.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, leaving the score unchanged.
District
WI-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+40.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $863.5K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $863,539 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 99.8% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#2,07555.9
IN House 26Democratic · D+28.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline92.8
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 26 scores 55.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+28.2 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+28.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,07755.7Tie of 4
RI-01Democratic · D+22.2 · 2.7 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline68.6
Primary feasibility0.0
AIPAC support82.6
Incumbent alignment gap45.6
Cash vulnerability21.6
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
RI-01 scores 59.6 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.9 resolves the incumbent's source spelling through the reviewed alias table and applies the direct 2024 primary evidence, moving the score -3.7 to 55.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-08-20, moving the score -0.2 to 55.7.
District
RI-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+22.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.7M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,734,227 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 100.0% of retained contest votes.
#2,08155.6
WA-02Democratic · D+23.7 · 25.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline74.7
Primary feasibility18.5
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap56.9
Cash vulnerability44.2
Deep blue4 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WA-02 scores 55.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.1 to 55.6.
District
WA-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+23.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $669.6K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $669,645 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,08255.5Tie of 7
CA-33Democratic · D+8.7 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline14.9
Primary feasibility20.4
AIPAC support94.7
Incumbent alignment gap64.6
Cash vulnerability8.0
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-33 scores 55.5 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-33 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+8.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.5M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,457,642 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,09655.1
FL-23Democratic · D+1.9 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility51.6
AIPAC support80.1
Incumbent alignment gap78.2
Cash vulnerability21.2
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-23 scores 60.6 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, moving the score -5.5 to 55.1.
District
FL-23 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+1.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $349.3K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $349,287 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#2,09755.0Tie of 3
PA-07Republican · R+3.2 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness87.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability11.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-07 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 55.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 63.9 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.2. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
PA-07 recorded a R+3.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,938,717 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,10054.9Tie of 3
IN Senate 1Republican · R+4.7 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness81.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 54.9 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+4.7 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,10354.8
NV-04Democratic · D+2.3 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility10.5
AIPAC support94.7
Incumbent alignment gap64.4
Cash vulnerability26.2
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NV-04 scores 56.7 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -1.9 to 54.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NV-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+2.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.5M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,496,222 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 89.5% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#2,10454.7Tie of 8
OH-01Democratic · D+6.3 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline5.3
Primary feasibility30.2
AIPAC support88.1
Incumbent alignment gap77.5
Cash vulnerability7.1
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OH-01 scores 54.7 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OH-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+6.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.6M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,610,214 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,11654.5Tie of 2
CA-17Democratic · D+37.9 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility19.6
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap25.6
Cash vulnerability0.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-17 scores 54.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-17 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+37.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $16.9M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $16,929,752 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,11654.5Tie of 2
FL-07Republican · R+12.5 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness50.1
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability93.4
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-07 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 53.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 62.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +11.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, moving the score +1.0 to 54.5.
District
FL-07 recorded a R+12.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $81,082 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,11854.4Tie of 5
FL-22Democratic · D+5.6 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline2.3
Primary feasibility40.7
AIPAC support80.1
Incumbent alignment gap71.3
Cash vulnerability30.8
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-22 scores 59.1 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, moving the score -4.7 to 54.4.
District
FL-22 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+5.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $287.3K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $287,321 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#2,11854.4Tie of 5
DE House 32Democratic · D+23.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline75.2
Primary feasibility35.4
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
DE House 32 scores 54.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+23.8 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+23.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,12354.3Tie of 4
IN-01Democratic · D+0.4 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility0.0
AIPAC support91.6
Incumbent alignment gap71.5
Cash vulnerability28.6
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN-01 scores 57.9 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -3.6 to 54.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IN-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+0.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.3M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,336,696 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 100.0% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#2,12754.2
MO House 105Republican · R+5.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness76.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 105 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 54.2 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+5.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,13553.9Tie of 2
OH-13Democratic · D+0.0 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility36.1
AIPAC support88.1
Incumbent alignment gap64.3
Cash vulnerability21.0
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OH-13 scores 53.9 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OH-13 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+0.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.9M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,897,462 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,13553.9Tie of 2
SC-06Democratic · D+22.7 · 33.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline70.7
Primary feasibility10.3
AIPAC support66.5
Incumbent alignment gap59.1
Cash vulnerability24.3
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
SC-06 scores 53.9 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
SC-06 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+22.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.6M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,634,793 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,13753.8Tie of 2
CA-25Democratic · D+2.5 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility20.6
AIPAC support94.7
Incumbent alignment gap63.6
Cash vulnerability14.6
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-25 scores 53.8 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-25 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+2.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.6M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,556,494 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,13753.8Tie of 2
NC-S2Republican · R+3.2 · 11.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness87.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability6.9
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 53.8 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
NC recorded a R+3.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $3,646,200 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,14053.6
CA-24Democratic · D+25.0 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline80.2
Primary feasibility23.1
AIPAC support29.0
Incumbent alignment gap56.6
Cash vulnerability8.5
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-24 scores 53.6 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-24 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+25.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.4M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,383,604 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,14153.4Tie of 4
HI House 42Republican · R+13.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness45.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation100.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 42 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 53.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+13.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,14853.0Tie of 6
MA-09Democratic · D+10.8 · 15.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline23.1
Primary feasibility32.9
AIPAC support68.5
Incumbent alignment gap59.2
Cash vulnerability50.2
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MA-09 scores 53.0 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-08-12, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MA-09 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+10.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $510.1K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $510,082 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.