MO Senate 15 · MODEL v1.14 · 2 INPUTS MEASURED

David Gregory

MO Senate 15 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 56.6 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.

Priority score56.6#2,063 of 5,726Tie of 3

THE MEMBER

Record

David Gregory holds MO state Senate district 15 as a Republican. The Open States roster is the identity source; the seat is next regularly contested in 2028 on a 4-year term.

Baseline election: Nov 5, 2024
Next election: 2028
Alignment gap: Not in this score
Open States record: ocd-person/2f4b4782-bc17-40fd-88b7-53840c68ee3a

THE DISTRICT

MO Senate 15

The official state returns record R+4.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.

Own-race margin: R+4.8
Cash on hand: Not reported
Receipts / disbursements: Not reported / Not reported
Finance through: Not reported
Route: Republican-held flip screen
Baseline score: 80.8

SCORE ANATOMY

What makes the score

General-election competitiveness

80.8

The official state returns record R+4.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. A tied district begins at 100 and each Republican margin point subtracts four points.

Cash vulnerability

Not in this score

State campaign-finance filings are not retained, so the weight is omitted.

Local context

Not in this score

County-level local context is joined to House districts only, so the weight is omitted.

State Democratic primary contestation

32.0

Share of the state's latest retained state-legislative Democratic primaries that drew more than one named candidate, scaled so 40% contested equals 100.

CURRENT TERM

Recorded service

2024–nowMO-15Current at source cutoff

Formula renormalized(0.45 × competitiveness + 0.20 × cash vulnerability + 0.15 × local context + 0.20 × state contestation) × (0.6 + 0.4 × 0.65)

Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger