WA-02 · MODEL v1.14 · 4 INPUTS MEASURED
WA-02 scores 55.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.1 to 55.6.
THE MEMBER
Rick Larsen (born 1965) has served in the U.S. House since 2001-01-03. The retained record shows 25.5 cumulative years of House service, 25.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.
L000560THE DISTRICT
WA-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+23.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $669.6K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $669,645 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 74.7 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+23.7.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 18.5 points and remains incomplete.
Not in this score
AIPAC component is unavailable for this seat; the fallback route does not replace it with zero.
The retained voting trackers produce a 56.9-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-07-15) reports $652,100 cash on hand, replacing the $669,645 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record