PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#186.0Tie of 1,298
HI House 14Republican · D+12.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness100.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation100.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 14 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 86.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record D+12.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,29985.7Tie of 3
HI House 39Republican · R+0.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness99.6
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation100.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 39 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 85.7 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+0.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,30285.4
NY-16Democratic · D+33.1 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility65.6
AIPAC support99.3
Incumbent alignment gap56.7
Cash vulnerability84.8
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-16 scores 85.4 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-16 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+33.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $100.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $100,662 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,30983.9
HI House 32Republican · R+0.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness96.4
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation100.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 32 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 83.9 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+0.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,31083.6Tie of 4
NY-13Democratic · D+59.3 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility61.0
AIPAC support94.5
Incumbent alignment gap48.8
Cash vulnerability98.1
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-13 scores 83.6 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-13 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+59.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $54.5K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $54,546 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,32981.3
TX-30 · open seatDemocratic · D+47.0 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility37.6
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Deep blue3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-30 is an open seat: the incumbent has filed for the 2026 Senate race. V0.11 scores it on the structural baseline alone at 81.3 (+6.4 from v0.10).
District
TX-30 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+47.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.6M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,611,233 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,33181.0Tie of 2
PA-03Democratic · D+77.3 · 9.7 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility57.8
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap46.2
Cash vulnerability100.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-03 scores 79.6 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +1.4 to 81.0.
District
PA-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+77.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $76.1K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $76,137 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,33380.8Tie of 2
GA-05Democratic · D+71.6 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility63.1
AIPAC support91.6
Incumbent alignment gap45.2
Cash vulnerability90.9
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA-05 scores 80.8 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
GA-05 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+71.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $76.1K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $76,092 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,33880.1Tie of 2
IL-01Democratic · D+32.0 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility69.5
AIPAC support63.7
Incumbent alignment gap30.2
Cash vulnerability100.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-01 scores 80.1 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IL-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+32.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $47.2K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $47,163 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,33880.1Tie of 2
NC-04Democratic · D+45.3 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility69.5
AIPAC support74.5
Incumbent alignment gap29.9
Cash vulnerability100.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC-04 scores 80.1 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NC-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+45.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $47.8K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $47,788 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,34080.0
KY House 30Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility76.6
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY House 30 scores 80.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,34179.9
NY-09Democratic · D+40.6 · 19.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility49.2
AIPAC support89.6
Incumbent alignment gap44.6
Cash vulnerability100.0
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-09 scores 79.9 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-09 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+40.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $31.0K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $30,978 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,34279.8Tie of 4
GA House 105Republican · R+0.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness98.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 105 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 79.8 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+0.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,34779.2
GA House 117Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility73.5
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 117 scores 79.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,34979.0
MD-04Democratic · D+73.6 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility56.5
AIPAC support45.0
Incumbent alignment gap53.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Deep blue4 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MD-04 scores 79.0 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and no available cash-on-hand evidence.
District
MD-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+73.6. Incumbent cash on hand is not available (not_reported). Incumbent cash on hand is not reported in the release.
#1,35278.6
AZ-01Republican · R+3.1 · 15.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness87.6
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability100.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AZ-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 78.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 91.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +15.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
AZ-01 recorded a R+3.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $49,824 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#1,37277.7Tie of 9
HI House 45Republican · R+3.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness86.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation100.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 45 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 77.7 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+3.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,38877.0Tie of 2
IL-02 · open seatDemocratic · D+33.1 · 13.3 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility23.2
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Deep blue3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-02 is an open seat: the incumbent has filed for the 2026 Senate race. V0.11 scores it on the structural baseline alone at 77.0 (+4.8 from v0.10).
District
IL-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+33.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.0M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,015,111 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,38877.0Tie of 2
NC House 42Democratic · D+48.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility65.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC House 42 scores 77.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+48.6 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+48.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,39076.8Tie of 7
MD-S1Democratic · D+28.5 · 1.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline94.2
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap45.4
Cash vulnerability43.1
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MD-S1 scores 76.8 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+28.5 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
MD recorded a D+28.5 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $686,549 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,39776.5
GA-06Democratic · D+49.9 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility40.5
AIPAC support92.5
Incumbent alignment gap68.5
Cash vulnerability43.4
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA-06 scores 76.5 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
GA-06 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+49.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $676.3K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $676,349 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,41575.9
CA-37Democratic · D+60.4 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility57.4
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap42.7
Cash vulnerability71.5
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-37 scores 75.9 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-37 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+60.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $185.5K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $185,491 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,41675.8Tie of 2
VA-04Democratic · D+32.7 · 3.4 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility57.3
AIPAC support52.5
Incumbent alignment gap42.9
Cash vulnerability70.2
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
VA-04 scores 75.9 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score -0.1 to 75.8.
District
VA-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+32.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $192.4K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $192,447 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,41875.7Tie of 2
MI-11 · open seatDemocratic · D+16.1 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline44.3
Primary feasibility39.5
AIPAC support97.8
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
AIPAC-supported blue3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MI-11 is an open seat: the incumbent has filed for the 2026 Senate race. V0.11 scores it on the structural baseline alone at 75.7 (-2.2 from v0.10).
District
MI-11 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+16.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $753.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $753,736 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,42075.5Tie of 5
GA House 99Republican · R+2.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness91.6
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 99 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 75.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+2.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,42575.3Tie of 2
GA-GovRepublican · R+2.2 · 8.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness91.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA-Gov enters through the Republican-held flip route at 75.3 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
State
GA recorded a R+2.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. State campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,42575.3Tie of 2
CA-15Democratic · D+47.9 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility55.8
AIPAC support53.9
Incumbent alignment gap43.9
Cash vulnerability67.9
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-15 scores 75.3 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-15 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+47.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $220.9K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $220,935 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,43075.1
MO-01Democratic · D+57.2 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility48.9
AIPAC support100.0
Incumbent alignment gap51.0
Cash vulnerability33.0
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO-01 scores 72.4 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score +0.9 to 73.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +1.8 to 75.1.
District
MO-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+57.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.9M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,908,027 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 51.1% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#1,43175.0Tie of 2
CA-36Democratic · D+39.1 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility30.2
AIPAC support100.0
Incumbent alignment gap60.5
Cash vulnerability31.2
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-36 scores 75.0 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-36 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+39.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.2M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,188,399 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,43175.0Tie of 2
NC Senate 41Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility57.2
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC Senate 41 scores 75.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,43574.7
TN Senate 19Democratic · D+66.4 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility56.3
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN Senate 19 scores 74.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+66.4 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+66.4 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,43674.6Tie of 9
HI House 20Democratic · D+38.4 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility56.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 20 scores 74.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+38.4 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+38.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,43674.6Tie of 9
IN Senate 46Democratic · D+45.9 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility56.1
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 46 scores 74.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+45.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+45.9 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,43674.6Tie of 9
MO House 75Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility55.9
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 75 scores 74.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,43674.6Tie of 9
TN House 96Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility56.1
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 96 scores 74.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,45273.9Tie of 3
MO House 68Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility52.9
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 68 scores 73.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,45573.8
NC House 66Democratic · D+74.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility52.8
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC House 66 scores 73.8 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+74.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+74.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,45673.7
NC House 71Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility52.2
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC House 71 scores 73.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,45773.6Tie of 12
NE-02Republican · D+4.6 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness100.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability53.1
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NE-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 78.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 90.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +13.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score -4.5 to 73.6.
District
NE-02 recorded a D+4.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $198,434 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#1,46973.5
GA House 94Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility51.7
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 94 scores 73.5 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,47073.4
CA-52Democratic · D+21.2 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline64.8
Primary feasibility45.9
AIPAC support91.6
Incumbent alignment gap57.7
Cash vulnerability74.2
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-52 scores 73.4 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-52 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+21.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $163.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $163,676 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,47273.0Tie of 3
CA-29Democratic · D+34.8 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility53.4
AIPAC support83.7
Incumbent alignment gap43.5
Cash vulnerability56.1
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-29 scores 73.0 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-29 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+34.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $377.5K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $377,476 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,47273.0Tie of 3
GA House 130Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility49.7
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 130 scores 73.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,47572.9Tie of 6
IL-07Democratic · D+65.4 · 29.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility35.4
AIPAC support85.6
Incumbent alignment gap33.3
Cash vulnerability87.3
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-07 scores 72.3 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +0.6 to 72.9.
District
IL-07 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+65.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $105.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $105,728 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,47572.9Tie of 6
LA-02Democratic · D+31.4 · 5.2 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility48.1
AIPAC support67.1
Incumbent alignment gap48.2
Cash vulnerability55.8
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
LA-02 scores 72.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-18, moving the score +0.2 to 72.9.
District
LA-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+31.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $407.3K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $407,274 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,47572.9Tie of 6
HI House 40Republican · R+5.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness78.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation100.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 40 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 72.9 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+5.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,47572.9Tie of 6
HI Senate 23Republican · R+5.5 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness78.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation100.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI Senate 23 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 72.9 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+5.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,47572.9Tie of 6
MO House 19Democratic · D+48.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility49.4
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 19 scores 72.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+48.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+48.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,48172.8Tie of 3
FL-24Democratic · D+30.1 · 15.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility33.2
AIPAC support56.9
Incumbent alignment gap61.2
Cash vulnerability57.3
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-24 scores 71.8 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +1.0 to 72.8.
District
FL-24 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+30.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $497.2K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $497,200 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,48172.8Tie of 3
OH-11Democratic · D+55.1 · 4.8 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility39.1
AIPAC support96.1
Incumbent alignment gap52.4
Cash vulnerability31.8
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OH-11 scores 72.8 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OH-11 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+55.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.2M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,156,556 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.