WI-02 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED

Mark Pocan

WI-02 scores 62.1 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -6.0 to 56.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, leaving the score unchanged.

Priority score56.1#2,072 of 5,726Tie of 3

THE MEMBER

Record

Mark Pocan (born 1964) has served in the U.S. House since 2013-01-03. The retained record shows 13.6 cumulative years of House service, 13.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.

First House service: Jan 3, 2013
District changes: 0
Alignment gap: 24.3
Bioguide record: P000607

THE DISTRICT

WI-02

WI-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+40.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $863.5K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $863,539 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 99.8% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.

2024 presidential margin: D+40.1
Cash on hand: $884,043
Receipts / disbursements: $814,874 / $933,048
Finance through: Jul 22, 2026
Route: Deep blue
Baseline score: 70.1

SCORE ANATOMY

What makes the score

Blue baseline

100.0

District Democratic baseline contributes 100.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+40.1.

Primary feasibility

0.2

The retained official 2024 Democratic primary reports 149,581 incumbent votes out of 149,897 contest votes (99.8%). Primary feasibility is the inverse share, 0.2. The candidate identity and CD119 district key are bound; no winner is inferred.

AIPAC support

0.0

Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 0.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.

Incumbent alignment gap

24.3

The retained voting trackers produce a 24.3-point alignment gap.

Cash vulnerability

37.6

The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-07-22) reports $884,043 cash on hand, replacing the $863,539 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.

HOUSE HISTORY

Recorded service

2013–2015WI-02Completed term

2015–2017WI-02Completed term

2017–2019WI-02Completed term

2019–2021WI-02Completed term

2021–2023WI-02Completed term

2023–2025WI-02Completed term

2025–nowWI-02Current at source cutoff

Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.8 replaces inferred primary feasibility with 100 minus the directly linked 2024 incumbent vote share; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot

Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record