NV-03 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED

Susie Lee

NV-03 scores 51.7 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -1.6 to 50.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.

Priority score50.1#2,222 of 5,726

THE MEMBER

Record

Susie Lee (born 1966) has served in the U.S. House since 2019-01-03. The retained record shows 7.6 cumulative years of House service, 7.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.

First House service: Jan 3, 2019
District changes: 0
Alignment gap: 80.9
Bioguide record: L000590

THE DISTRICT

NV-03

NV-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+-0.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.7M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,689,228 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 91.8% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.

2024 presidential margin: R+0.7
Cash on hand: $3,689,228
Receipts / disbursements: $4,401,421 / $1,178,847
Finance through: Jun 30, 2026
Route: AIPAC-supported blue
Baseline score: 50.6

SCORE ANATOMY

What makes the score

Blue baseline

0.0

District Democratic baseline contributes 0.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+-0.7.

Primary feasibility

8.2

The retained official 2024 Democratic primary reports 33,901 incumbent votes out of 36,937 contest votes (91.8%). Primary feasibility is the inverse share, 8.2. The candidate identity and CD119 district key are bound; no winner is inferred.

AIPAC support

82.2

Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 82.2 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.

Incumbent alignment gap

80.9

The retained voting trackers produce a 80.9-point alignment gap.

Cash vulnerability

6.6

The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-06-30) reports $3,689,228 cash on hand, replacing the $3,689,228 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.

HOUSE HISTORY

Recorded service

2019–2021NV-03Completed term

2021–2023NV-03Completed term

2023–2025NV-03Completed term

2025–nowNV-03Current at source cutoff

Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.8 replaces inferred primary feasibility with 100 minus the directly linked 2024 incumbent vote share; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot

Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record