NV-04 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED

Steven Horsford

NV-04 scores 56.7 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -1.9 to 54.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.

Priority score54.8#2,103 of 5,726

THE MEMBER

Record

Steven Horsford (born 1973) has served in the U.S. House since 2013-01-03. The retained record shows 9.6 cumulative years of House service, 7.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 1 material service break.

First House service: Jan 3, 2013
District changes: 0
Alignment gap: 64.4
Bioguide record: H001066

THE DISTRICT

NV-04

NV-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+2.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.5M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,496,222 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 89.5% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.

2024 presidential margin: D+2.3
Cash on hand: $1,496,222
Receipts / disbursements: $3,350,563 / $1,860,631
Finance through: Jun 30, 2026
Route: AIPAC-supported blue
Baseline score: 58.4

SCORE ANATOMY

What makes the score

Blue baseline

0.0

District Democratic baseline contributes 0.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+2.3.

Primary feasibility

10.5

The retained official 2024 Democratic primary reports 34,861 incumbent votes out of 38,945 contest votes (89.5%). Primary feasibility is the inverse share, 10.5. The candidate identity and CD119 district key are bound; no winner is inferred.

AIPAC support

94.7

Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 94.7 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.

Incumbent alignment gap

64.4

The retained voting trackers produce a 64.4-point alignment gap.

Cash vulnerability

26.2

The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-06-30) reports $1,496,222 cash on hand, replacing the $1,496,222 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.

HOUSE HISTORY

Recorded service

2013–2015NV-04Completed term

2019–2021NV-04Completed term

2021–2023NV-04Completed term

2023–2025NV-04Completed term

2025–nowNV-04Current at source cutoff

Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.8 replaces inferred primary feasibility with 100 minus the directly linked 2024 incumbent vote share; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot

Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record