NY-18 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED
NY-18 scores 56.5 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
THE MEMBER
Patrick Ryan (born 1982) has served in the U.S. House since 2022-09-13. The retained record shows 3.9 cumulative years of House service, 3.9 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 1 district change, and 0 material service breaks.
R000579THE DISTRICT
NY-18 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+3.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,116,479 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 0.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+3.3.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 31.1 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 100.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 64.6-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-06-30) reports $3,116,479 cash on hand, replacing the $3,116,479 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record