PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#2,28247.5Tie of 3
HI House 8Democratic · D+24.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline78.8
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 8 scores 47.5 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+24.7 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+24.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,28547.3
TX-16Democratic · D+16.0 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline44.0
Primary feasibility48.9
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap41.3
Cash vulnerability63.3
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-16 scores 47.3 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-16 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+16.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $270.5K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $270,455 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,28647.2
GA House 81Republican · R+14.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness44.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 81 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 47.2 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+14.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,29347.0
OH-15Republican · R+9.2 · 4.7 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness63.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability19.3
State Democratic primary contestation51.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OH-15 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 47.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 50.0 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +10.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OH-15 recorded a R+9.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,056,713 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,29846.7
TN House 80Democratic · D+21.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline66.0
Primary feasibility27.1
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 80 scores 46.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+21.5 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+21.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,29946.6Tie of 2
MD-06Democratic · D+5.8 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline3.1
Primary feasibility55.3
AIPAC support52.5
Incumbent alignment gap55.6
Cash vulnerability60.5
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MD-06 scores 46.6 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MD-06 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+5.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $307.6K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $307,611 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,29946.6Tie of 2
MO House 30Republican · R+9.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness64.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 30 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 46.6 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+9.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,30546.4Tie of 3
OH-GovRepublican · R+11.2 · 8.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness55.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation51.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OH-Gov enters through the Republican-held flip route at 46.4 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
State
OH recorded a R+11.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. State campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,30546.4Tie of 3
MO House 101Republican · R+9.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness63.6
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 101 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 46.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+9.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,31046.1Tie of 2
OH-07Republican · R+10.6 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness57.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability28.0
State Democratic primary contestation51.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OH-07 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 46.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 49.0 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +11.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OH-07 recorded a R+10.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,379,132 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,31545.8Tie of 3
GA House 19Republican · R+14.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness41.6
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 19 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 45.8 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+14.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,32345.5Tie of 3
GA-12Republican · R+14.2 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness43.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability28.9
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA-12 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 45.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 48.4 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +17.6. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
GA-12 recorded a R+14.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,320,958 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,32345.5Tie of 3
MA-01Democratic · D+13.6 · 37.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline34.5
Primary feasibility1.9
AIPAC support68.5
Incumbent alignment gap57.9
Cash vulnerability9.2
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MA-01 scores 44.8 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-08-12, moving the score +0.7 to 45.5.
District
MA-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+13.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $4.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $4,055,460 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,32645.4Tie of 5
SC-02Republican · R+13.9 · 24.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness44.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability71.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
SC-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 45.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 52.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +9.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
SC-02 recorded a R+13.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $182,912 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,32645.4Tie of 5
DE-S1Democratic · D+14.7 · 1.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline38.8
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap40.1
Cash vulnerability80.8
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
DE-S1 scores 45.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+14.7 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
DE recorded a D+14.7 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $120,948 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,33145.3Tie of 2
IL-08 · open seatDemocratic · D+6.9 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline7.6
Primary feasibility19.6
AIPAC support67.5
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
AIPAC-supported blue3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-08 is an open seat: the incumbent has filed for the 2026 Senate race. V0.11 scores it on the structural baseline alone at 45.3 (-9.9 from v0.10).
District
IL-08 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+6.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $17.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $17,111,494 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#2,33145.3Tie of 2
GA House 142Democratic · D+21.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline64.4
Primary feasibility25.4
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 142 scores 45.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+21.1 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+21.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,33345.2Tie of 4
HI House 6Democratic · D+23.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline72.0
Primary feasibility7.3
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 6 scores 45.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+23.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+23.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,33345.2Tie of 4
MO House 87Democratic · D+23.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline75.2
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 87 scores 45.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+23.8 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+23.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,33745.1Tie of 2
CT-02Democratic · D+7.7 · 19.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline10.9
Primary feasibility26.3
AIPAC support56.4
Incumbent alignment gap59.5
Cash vulnerability45.9
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CT-02 scores 45.1 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CT-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+7.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $603.2K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $603,234 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,33745.1Tie of 2
GA House 45Republican · R+14.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness40.4
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 45 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 45.1 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+14.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,33945.0
CO-05Republican · R+9.1 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness63.7
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability26.7
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CO-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 45.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 52.3 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CO-05 recorded a R+9.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,465,048 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,34044.8
GA Senate 37Republican · R+15.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness40.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA Senate 37 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 44.8 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+15.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,34144.7Tie of 2
TN-05Republican · R+17.8 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness28.9
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability96.9
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 44.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 46.8 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +12.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-17, moving the score +0.7 to 44.7.
District
TN-05 recorded a R+17.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $67,235 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,34344.6Tie of 4
MO House 104Republican · R+9.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness60.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 104 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 44.6 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+9.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,34744.4Tie of 6
IN House 5Republican · R+9.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness63.6
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 5 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 44.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+9.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,35344.3Tie of 2
HI House 41Republican · R+17.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness30.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation100.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 41 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 44.3 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+17.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,35544.2
LA-06Democratic · D+15.0 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline39.9
Primary feasibility47.0
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap44.7
Cash vulnerability53.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
LA-06 scores 44.2 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-18, leaving the score unchanged.
District
LA-06 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+15.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $436.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $436,705 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,35644.1
GA House 34Republican · R+15.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness38.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 34 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 44.1 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+15.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,35744.0Tie of 12
GA House 52Democratic · D+23.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline73.2
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 52 scores 44.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+23.3 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+23.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,36943.9
MO House 36Democratic · D+23.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline72.8
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 36 scores 43.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+23.2 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+23.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,37043.7Tie of 8
MO Senate 23Republican · R+10.2 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness59.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 23 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 43.7 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+10.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,37843.5
MT-01Republican · R+11.6 · 5.7 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness53.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability43.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MT-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 43.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 50.6 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.7.
District
MT-01 recorded a R+11.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $680,531 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,38043.3Tie of 9
FL-11Republican · R+16.3 · 15.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness35.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability84.7
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-11 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 43.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 50.3 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +10.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
FL-11 recorded a R+16.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $101,287 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,38043.3Tie of 9
HI-02Democratic · D+21.6 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline66.4
Primary feasibility0.0
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap30.0
Cash vulnerability47.1
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI-02 scores 52.2 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -9.1 to 43.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-19, moving the score +0.2 to 43.3.
District
HI-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+21.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $604.5K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $604,526 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 100.0% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#2,38043.3Tie of 9
VA-05Republican · R+12.3 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness50.9
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability49.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
VA-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 42.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 49.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.5 to 43.3.
District
VA-05 recorded a R+12.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $565,242 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,38043.3Tie of 9
WA-05Republican · R+10.8 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness56.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability36.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WA-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 42.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 49.5 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.7 to 43.3.
District
WA-05 recorded a R+10.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,084,882 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,38043.3Tie of 9
IN House 27Democratic · D+23.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline72.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 27 scores 43.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+23.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+23.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,38943.2
IA-S3Republican · R+13.2 · 45.5 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness47.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability57.1
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IA-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 43.2 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
IA recorded a R+13.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $360,213 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,39243.0Tie of 10
PA-08Republican · R+8.5 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness66.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability14.1
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-08 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 43.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 50.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +5.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
PA-08 recorded a R+8.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,608,048 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,39243.0Tie of 10
MO House 96Republican · R+10.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness58.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 96 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 43.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+10.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,40242.9
GA-01 · open seatRepublican · R+15.8 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness36.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA-01 is an open seat: the incumbent has filed for the 2026 Senate race. V0.11 scores it on competitiveness and state context without incumbent cash at 42.9 (-14.3 from v0.10).
District
GA-01 recorded a R+15.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $3,018,930 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,40342.7Tie of 11
MO House 106Republican · R+10.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness57.6
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 106 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 42.7 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+10.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,41442.4Tie of 6
CO-03Republican · R+9.7 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness61.1
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability22.7
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CO-03 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 42.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 49.3 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CO-03 recorded a R+9.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,760,849 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,42042.3Tie of 5
WI-03Republican · R+7.4 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness70.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability1.4
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WI-03 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 42.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 49.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +5.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, leaving the score unchanged.
District
WI-03 recorded a R+7.4 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $4,684,610 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,43241.9Tie of 2
KS-03Democratic · D+4.1 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility0.0
AIPAC support66.3
Incumbent alignment gap62.8
Cash vulnerability23.1
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KS-03 scores 45.1 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -3.1 to 42.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score -0.1 to 41.9.
District
KS-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+4.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.7M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,695,944 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 100.0% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#2,43241.9Tie of 2
MO-02Republican · R+7.9 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness68.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability3.6
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 41.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 44.4 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +5.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.2 to 41.9.
District
MO-02 recorded a R+7.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $4,399,245 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,43441.8Tie of 4
CT-S3Democratic · D+14.5 · 15.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
Blue baseline38.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap65.8
Cash vulnerability26.5
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CT-S3 scores 41.8 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+14.5 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
CT recorded a D+14.5 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,476,933 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,44541.3Tie of 4
NV-02Republican · R+13.9 · 14.9 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness44.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability56.4
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NV-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 41.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 48.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +8.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score -0.2 to 41.3.
District
NV-02 recorded a R+13.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $361,041 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,44541.3Tie of 4
RI-S1Democratic · D+13.8 · 19.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline35.1
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap66.9
Cash vulnerability33.7
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
RI-S1 scores 41.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+13.8 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
RI recorded a D+13.8 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,059,879 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.