PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#2,44941.2Tie of 3
CO-S3Democratic · D+11.0 · 17.5 years in Senate · next election 2028
Blue baseline23.9
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap76.2
Cash vulnerability69.7
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CO-S3 scores 41.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+11.0 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
CO recorded a D+11.0 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $201,760 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,44941.2Tie of 3
GA Senate 42Republican · R+16.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness34.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA Senate 42 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 41.2 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+16.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,45241.1
MO House 31Republican · R+11.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness54.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 31 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 41.1 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+11.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,45341.0
PA-06Democratic · D+11.4 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline25.6
Primary feasibility24.1
AIPAC support52.5
Incumbent alignment gap66.8
Cash vulnerability4.6
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-06 scores 41.0 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
PA-06 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+11.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $4.0M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $4,037,759 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,45440.9Tie of 7
MO House 16Republican · R+11.4 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness54.4
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 16 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 40.9 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+11.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,46140.6Tie of 7
IN House 97Democratic · D+19.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline57.2
Primary feasibility23.7
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 97 scores 40.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+19.3 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+19.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,46840.4Tie of 2
DE-S2Democratic · D+14.7 · 15.7 years in Senate · next election 2026
Blue baseline38.8
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap75.4
Cash vulnerability0.9
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
DE-S2 scores 40.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+14.7 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
DE recorded a D+14.7 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $4,793,384 cash on hand through 2026-08-26.
#2,46840.4Tie of 2
MO Senate 8Republican · R+11.6 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness53.6
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 8 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 40.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+11.6 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,47040.3Tie of 2
MS-02Democratic · D+20.4 · 33.3 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline61.4
Primary feasibility0.0
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap41.6
Cash vulnerability26.9
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MS-02 scores 42.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -2.2 to 40.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MS-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+20.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.4M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,449,522 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 100.0% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#2,47040.3Tie of 2
IN Senate 31Republican · R+10.8 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness56.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 31 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 40.3 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+10.8 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,47540.0
GA House 35Democratic · D+21.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline66.4
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 35 scores 40.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+21.6 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+21.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,48639.7Tie of 3
IA-01Republican · R+8.5 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness66.1
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability1.4
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IA-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 39.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 46.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IA-01 recorded a R+8.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $4,691,481 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,48639.7Tie of 3
FL-S1Republican · R+13.1 · 7.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
General-election competitiveness47.6
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability43.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-S1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 39.7 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
FL recorded a R+13.1 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $690,448 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,48639.7Tie of 3
TX-S2Republican · R+13.7 · 23.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness45.3
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability48.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 39.7 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
TX recorded a R+13.7 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $542,120 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,48939.6Tie of 6
NY-20Democratic · D+14.1 · 17.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline36.6
Primary feasibility32.5
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap42.0
Cash vulnerability54.6
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-20 scores 39.6 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-20 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+14.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $404.3K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $404,327 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,49539.4
PA-04Democratic · D+15.8 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline43.2
Primary feasibility35.3
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap41.1
Cash vulnerability31.3
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-04 scores 39.4 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
PA-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+15.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.2M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,184,807 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,49639.3Tie of 2
OR-S3Democratic · D+14.3 · 30.5 years in Senate · next election 2028
Blue baseline37.2
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap55.8
Cash vulnerability26.2
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OR-S3 scores 39.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+14.3 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
OR recorded a D+14.3 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,499,077 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,49839.2Tie of 8
CO-06Democratic · D+19.8 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline59.1
Primary feasibility27.7
AIPAC support33.8
Incumbent alignment gap58.4
Cash vulnerability13.3
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CO-06 scores 39.2 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CO-06 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+19.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.7M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,707,899 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,49839.2Tie of 8
MO House 90Democratic · D+21.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline65.2
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 90 scores 39.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+21.3 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+21.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,50639.1
CT-03Democratic · D+14.1 · 35.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline36.2
Primary feasibility24.4
AIPAC support29.0
Incumbent alignment gap54.1
Cash vulnerability57.8
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CT-03 scores 39.1 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CT-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+14.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $349.4K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $349,418 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,50739.0Tie of 7
MA-03Democratic · D+19.0 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline55.9
Primary feasibility31.6
AIPAC support33.8
Incumbent alignment gap51.2
Cash vulnerability22.5
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MA-03 scores 39.0 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-08-12, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MA-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+19.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.8M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,777,088 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,50739.0Tie of 7
MO House 133Republican · R+12.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness51.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 133 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 39.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+12.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,51738.8
MN-01Republican · R+12.0 · 4.0 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness52.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability29.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MN-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 39.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 45.5 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, moving the score -0.3 to 38.8.
District
MN-01 recorded a R+12.0 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,210,804 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,51838.7Tie of 4
OH-S3Republican · R+11.2 · 1.5 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness55.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestation51.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OH-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 38.7 with 85% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability, and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
State
OH recorded a R+11.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $9,419,311 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,51838.7Tie of 4
DE House 21Democratic · D+15.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline43.2
Primary feasibility49.3
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
DE House 21 scores 38.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+15.8 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+15.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,52238.6
GA House 54Democratic · D+19.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline57.2
Primary feasibility16.1
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 54 scores 38.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+19.3 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+19.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,52338.5Tie of 5
NM-01Democratic · D+12.7 · 5.1 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline30.7
Primary feasibility48.0
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap35.2
Cash vulnerability54.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NM-01 scores 38.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NM-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+12.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $416.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $416,711 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,52838.4Tie of 5
DE-ALDemocratic · D+14.7 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline38.9
Primary feasibility20.1
AIPAC support52.5
Incumbent alignment gap34.7
Cash vulnerability13.4
Local context49.6
AIPAC-supported blue6 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
DE-AL scores 39.3 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. The active v0.4 model adds exact at-large local context, moving the score +0.2 to 39.5. V0.5 adds the exact at-large House-versus-presidential comparison, moving the score +0.2 to 39.7. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -1.3 to 38.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-08-26, leaving the score unchanged.
District
DE-AL had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+14.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.7M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,657,928 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. Exact statewide county coverage adds turnout, registration, and demographic context without allocating split counties. The retained 2024 House Democratic candidate share ran +1.23 points versus Harris; this is research-fallback evidence, not an official canvass or winner claim. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 79.9% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#2,52838.4Tie of 5
FL-13Republican · R+11.9 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness52.6
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability26.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-13 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 38.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 44.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, leaving the score unchanged.
District
FL-13 recorded a R+11.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,455,366 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,52838.4Tie of 5
GA-11Republican · R+23.3 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness6.6
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability79.8
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA-11 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 36.9. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 39.3 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +20.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +1.5 to 38.4.
District
GA-11 recorded a R+23.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $172,984 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,53338.3
FL-15Republican · R+11.2 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness55.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability20.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-15 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 38.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 44.5 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +5.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, leaving the score unchanged.
District
FL-15 recorded a R+11.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,943,656 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,53638.1
GA House 46Republican · R+17.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness28.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 46 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 38.1 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+17.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,53738.0Tie of 2
GA-14Republican · R+36.8 · 0.3 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability92.5
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA-14 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 38.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 40.4 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +21.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
GA-14 recorded a R+36.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $70,518 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,53738.0Tie of 2
GA House 107Democratic · D+20.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline63.2
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 107 scores 38.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+20.8 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+20.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,53937.9Tie of 3
NY-01Republican · R+10.0 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness59.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability8.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 37.9. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 44.1 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-01 recorded a R+10.0 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $3,329,857 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,53937.9Tie of 3
NY-S1Democratic · D+12.9 · 17.5 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline31.8
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap73.5
Cash vulnerability16.8
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-S1 scores 37.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+12.9 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
NY recorded a D+12.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $2,304,537 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,53937.9Tie of 3
GA House 51Democratic · D+16.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline44.4
Primary feasibility43.5
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 51 scores 37.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+16.1 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+16.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,54237.8Tie of 16
FL-04Republican · R+11.8 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness52.6
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability24.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 38.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 44.3 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, moving the score -0.3 to 37.8.
District
FL-04 recorded a R+11.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,538,124 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,54237.8Tie of 16
PA-12Democratic · D+19.2 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline56.7
Primary feasibility37.3
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap5.7
Cash vulnerability24.1
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-12 scores 37.8 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
PA-12 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+19.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.6M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,649,288 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,54237.8Tie of 16
MO House 94Republican · R+12.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness49.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 94 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 37.8 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+12.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,54237.8Tie of 16
NC House 103Democratic · D+16.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline44.4
Primary feasibility43.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC House 103 scores 37.8 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+16.1 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+16.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,56437.3
OR-04Democratic · D+12.1 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline28.2
Primary feasibility47.9
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap38.7
Cash vulnerability49.1
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OR-04 scores 37.3 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OR-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+12.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $520.8K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $520,840 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,56537.2Tie of 2
RI-S2Democratic · D+13.8 · 29.5 years in Senate · next election 2026
Blue baseline35.1
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap63.9
Cash vulnerability10.4
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
RI-S2 scores 37.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+13.8 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
RI recorded a D+13.8 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $3,093,684 cash on hand through 2026-08-20.
#2,57236.9
IL-17Democratic · D+4.7 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility39.4
AIPAC support38.4
Incumbent alignment gap68.8
Cash vulnerability28.8
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-17 scores 36.9 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IL-17 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+4.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.3M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,325,642 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,58036.7
IN House 24Republican · R+12.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness50.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 24 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 36.7 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+12.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,58136.6
IN-05Republican · R+16.8 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness32.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability66.9
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 36.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 38.9 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +7.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IN-05 recorded a R+16.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $230,004 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,58236.5Tie of 4
NJ-02Republican · R+12.6 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness49.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability25.6
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NJ-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 36.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 42.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +5.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NJ-02 recorded a R+12.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,538,041 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,58636.3
NY-S3Democratic · D+12.9 · 27.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
Blue baseline31.8
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap78.3
Cash vulnerability0.0
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-S3 scores 36.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+12.9 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
NY recorded a D+12.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $8,001,241 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,59135.9Tie of 7
CA-05Republican · R+17.7 · 17.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness29.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability69.7
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 35.9. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 41.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +8.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-05 recorded a R+17.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $201,472 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,59135.9Tie of 7
GA House 40Republican · R+18.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness25.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 40 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 35.9 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+18.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.