PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#2,59135.9Tie of 7
GA Senate 9Democratic · D+19.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline59.6
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA Senate 9 scores 35.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+19.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+19.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,59135.9Tie of 7
TN House 49Republican · R+14.4 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness42.4
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 49 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 35.9 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+14.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,59835.8Tie of 4
CA-06Democratic · D+13.9 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline35.5
Primary feasibility23.5
AIPAC support29.0
Incumbent alignment gap65.7
Cash vulnerability21.8
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-06 scores 35.7 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +0.1 to 35.8.
District
CA-06 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+13.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.9M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,873,372 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#2,60235.7
IA-02Republican · R+10.0 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness60.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IA-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 41.2. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 47.9 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score -5.5 to 35.7.
District
IA-02 recorded a R+10.0 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,928,075 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,60335.6Tie of 3
PA-17Democratic · D+5.5 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline2.0
Primary feasibility41.3
AIPAC support46.4
Incumbent alignment gap40.8
Cash vulnerability33.4
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-17 scores 35.6 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
PA-17 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+5.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,073,975 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,60635.4Tie of 4
AZ-08Republican · R+16.3 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness34.7
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability55.7
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AZ-08 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 35.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 41.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-01, leaving the score unchanged.
District
AZ-08 recorded a R+16.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $384,185 cash on hand through 2026-07-01. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,61035.3Tie of 9
GA House 49Republican · R+19.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness24.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 49 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 35.3 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+19.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,61035.3Tie of 9
HI House 46Democratic · D+15.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline43.6
Primary feasibility35.1
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 46 scores 35.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+15.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+15.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,61935.2
NE-01Republican · R+13.0 · 4.1 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness47.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability25.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NE-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 35.2. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 40.9 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +5.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NE-01 recorded a R+13.0 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,560,751 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,62035.1Tie of 6
AK-S3Republican · R+13.1 · 23.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness47.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability25.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AK-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 35.1 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
AK recorded a R+13.1 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,523,264 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,62634.9Tie of 5
MO House 103Republican · R+13.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness44.4
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 103 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 34.9 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+13.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,63134.8
RI-02Democratic · D+6.8 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline7.1
Primary feasibility0.0
AIPAC support52.5
Incumbent alignment gap46.5
Cash vulnerability26.0
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
RI-02 scores 38.3 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -3.6 to 34.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-08-20, moving the score +0.1 to 34.8.
District
RI-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+6.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.6M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,588,340 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 100.0% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#2,63234.7Tie of 4
GA House 137Democratic · D+19.4 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline57.6
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 137 scores 34.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+19.4 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+19.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,64134.3Tie of 7
AL-02Democratic · D+8.2 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline12.9
Primary feasibility56.6
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap53.9
Cash vulnerability43.9
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AL-02 scores 32.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score +1.6 to 34.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, leaving the score unchanged.
District
AL-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+8.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $655.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $655,662 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 43.4% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#2,64834.2Tie of 2
CO-S2Democratic · D+11.0 · 5.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
Blue baseline23.9
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap79.0
Cash vulnerability19.0
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CO-S2 scores 34.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+11.0 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
CO recorded a D+11.0 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $2,083,870 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,64834.2Tie of 2
GA House 80Democratic · D+19.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline56.8
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 80 scores 34.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+19.2 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+19.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,65034.1Tie of 5
CA-39Democratic · D+9.7 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline18.8
Primary feasibility44.7
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap30.4
Cash vulnerability71.4
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-39 scores 34.1 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-39 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+9.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $186.2K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $186,224 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,65534.0Tie of 5
CT-S1Democratic · D+14.5 · 13.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline38.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap46.4
Cash vulnerability0.0
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CT-S1 scores 34.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+14.5 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
CT recorded a D+14.5 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $11,457,846 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,66033.9
WI-08Republican · R+16.3 · 1.7 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness35.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability49.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WI-08 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 34.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 39.6 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, moving the score -0.2 to 33.9.
District
WI-08 recorded a R+16.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $500,919 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,66133.8
NJ-03Democratic · D+8.4 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline13.4
Primary feasibility52.0
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap48.1
Cash vulnerability52.8
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NJ-03 scores 33.8 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NJ-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+8.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $439.3K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $439,329 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,66233.7Tie of 5
MN-08Republican · R+14.3 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness42.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability31.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MN-08 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 33.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 39.1 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +5.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, moving the score +0.1 to 33.7.
District
MN-08 recorded a R+14.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,208,605 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,66733.6
GA-09Republican · R+34.1 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability72.6
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA-09 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 33.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 35.7 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +20.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
GA-09 recorded a R+34.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $176,253 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,66833.5Tie of 2
NC-06Republican · R+17.2 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness31.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability55.9
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC-06 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 33.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 38.9 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.2. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NC-06 recorded a R+17.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $381,728 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,66833.5Tie of 2
IA-S2Republican · R+13.2 · 11.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness47.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability20.6
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IA-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 33.5 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
IA recorded a R+13.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,934,478 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,67033.4Tie of 9
CO-04Republican · R+18.3 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness27.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability65.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CO-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 33.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 38.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CO-04 recorded a R+18.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $247,202 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,67033.4Tie of 9
NC House 23Democratic · D+12.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline31.6
Primary feasibility55.7
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC House 23 scores 33.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+12.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+12.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,67933.2Tie of 2
IN Senate 35Republican · R+13.8 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness44.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 35 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 33.2 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+13.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,67933.2Tie of 2
MO House 89Republican · R+14.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness41.6
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 89 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 33.2 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+14.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,68333.0Tie of 7
TX-22Republican · R+19.5 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness21.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability75.9
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-22 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 29.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 34.1 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +3.7 to 33.0.
District
TX-22 recorded a R+19.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $289,079 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,69032.9
ME-S1Democratic · D+6.8 · 13.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline7.3
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap69.3
Cash vulnerability95.1
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
ME-S1 scores 32.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+6.8 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
ME recorded a D+6.8 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $62,612 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,69132.8Tie of 6
WA-04Republican · R+20.7 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness17.3
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability85.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WA-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 32.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 37.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +8.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +0.3 to 32.8.
District
WA-04 recorded a R+20.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $104,807 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,70032.6
TN House 83Republican · R+15.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness36.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 83 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 32.6 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+15.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,70132.4Tie of 3
WI-07Republican · R+22.5 · 6.2 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness10.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability100.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WI-07 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 25.2. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 29.3 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.2. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, moving the score +7.2 to 32.4.
District
WI-07 recorded a R+22.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $175,940 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,70532.1Tie of 5
MO Senate 30Republican · R+15.1 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness39.6
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 30 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 32.1 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+15.1 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,71131.9Tie of 2
FL-16Republican · R+15.5 · 19.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness38.1
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability35.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-16 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 31.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 36.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +5.6. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +0.3 to 31.9.
District
FL-16 recorded a R+15.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,049,213 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,71131.9Tie of 2
VA-10Democratic · D+8.4 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline13.4
Primary feasibility49.0
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap46.0
Cash vulnerability46.7
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
VA-10 scores 31.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.2 to 31.9.
District
VA-10 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+8.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $609.3K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $609,264 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,71831.6Tie of 5
NC-13Republican · R+16.5 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness34.1
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability42.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC-13 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 31.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 36.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NC-13 recorded a R+16.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $707,795 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,71831.6Tie of 5
IN House 92Democratic · D+18.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline52.4
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 92 scores 31.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+18.1 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+18.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,72531.4
IL-13Democratic · D+10.5 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline21.9
Primary feasibility33.1
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap64.1
Cash vulnerability14.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-13 scores 31.4 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IL-13 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+10.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.6M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,625,565 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,73031.1Tie of 5
FL-02Republican · R+18.0 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness28.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability54.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 39.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 46.3 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +9.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score -8.7 to 31.1.
District
FL-02 recorded a R+18.0 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $89,458 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,73031.1Tie of 5
GA-07Republican · R+22.1 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness11.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability34.8
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA-07 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 31.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 33.1 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +18.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
GA-07 recorded a R+22.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,007,984 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,73031.1Tie of 5
NC-10Republican · R+17.7 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness29.1
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability52.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC-10 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 31.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 36.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NC-10 recorded a R+17.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $451,275 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,73031.1Tie of 5
MO House 69Republican · R+15.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness38.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 69 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 31.1 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+15.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,73531.0Tie of 6
AK-ALRepublican · R+13.1 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness47.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability10.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AK-AL enters through the Republican-held flip route at 30.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 35.6 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, moving the score +0.4 to 31.0.
District
AK-AL recorded a R+13.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $3,280,417 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,73531.0Tie of 6
NC-07Republican · R+13.8 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness44.7
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability16.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC-07 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 31.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 36.1 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.6. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NC-07 recorded a R+13.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,301,487 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,73531.0Tie of 6
TN-06Republican · R+35.2 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability100.0
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN-06 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 16.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 17.8 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +10.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +14.3 to 31.0.
District
TN-06 recorded a R+35.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $983,754 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,74430.7Tie of 2
NY-04Democratic · D+1.3 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility61.8
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap70.3
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Deep blue4 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-04 scores 30.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and no available cash-on-hand evidence.
District
NY-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+1.3. Incumbent cash on hand is not available (not_reported). Incumbent cash on hand is not reported in the release.
#2,74430.7Tie of 2
DE House 13Democratic · D+12.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline30.0
Primary feasibility49.1
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
DE House 13 scores 30.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+12.5 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+12.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,74630.6Tie of 6
WI-06Republican · R+16.5 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness34.1
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability39.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WI-06 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 30.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 35.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, moving the score -0.2 to 30.6.
District
WI-06 recorded a R+16.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $803,603 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,75230.3Tie of 10
GA-10Republican · R+20.8 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness16.9
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability19.5
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA-10 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 36.2. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 38.5 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +19.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score -5.9 to 30.3.
District
GA-10 recorded a R+20.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $597,195 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.