MT-01 · MODEL v1.14 · 2 INPUTS MEASURED
MT-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 43.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 50.6 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.7.
THE MEMBER
Ryan K. Zinke is the current Republican House member for MT-01. The retained congressional history records 5.7 cumulative years of House service through the source cutoff.
Z000018THE DISTRICT
MT-01 recorded a R+11.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $680,531 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
SCORE ANATOMY
The retained 2024 presidential result was R+11.6. A tied district begins at 100 and each Republican margin point subtracts four points.
Not in this score
Not applicable to this Republican-held general-election route; no Democratic-primary value is imputed.
Not in this score
Not used in this route because the retained candidate-level AIPAC model covers the Democratic incumbent field.
Not in this score
Not used in this route because the retained alignment trackers cover Democratic incumbents.
The published release reports $680,531 cash on hand. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
Not in this score
No retained state-legislative Democratic primary catalog records uncontested contests for this state, so the component is omitted and the available weight is renormalized.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula v0.9 Republican-held route: renormalized 0.45 × competitiveness + 0.20 × cash vulnerability + 0.15 × local context + 0.20 × state Democratic primary contestation (65% of component weight available) × 0.860 coverage multiplier; the former flat 0.70 cap is removed
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record