OH-Gov · MODEL v1.14 · 2 INPUTS MEASURED
OH-Gov enters through the Republican-held flip route at 46.4 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
THE MEMBER
Mike DeWine is the Republican governor of OH. The Open States roster records a term ending 2027-01-11; the office is next contested in 2026.
ocd-person/37478cd9-ed21-43f7-b2cc-578df43ad32dTHE STATE
OH recorded a R+11.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. State campaign-finance filings are not retained.
SCORE ANATOMY
The statewide 2024 presidential result was R+11.2. A tied state begins at 100 and each Republican margin point subtracts four points.
Not in this score
State campaign-finance filings are not retained, so the weight is omitted.
The retained 2026 state-legislative Democratic primaries in this state score 51.0 on a scale where a 40% contested share is 100.
GUBERNATORIAL TERM
Formula renormalized(0.45 × competitiveness + 0.20 × cash vulnerability + 0.15 × local context + 0.20 × state contestation) × (0.6 + 0.4 × 0.65)
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger