HI-02 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED

Jill N. Tokuda

HI-02 scores 52.2 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -9.1 to 43.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-19, moving the score +0.2 to 43.3.

Priority score43.3#2,380 of 5,726Tie of 9

THE MEMBER

Record

Jill N. Tokuda (born 1976) has served in the U.S. House since 2023-01-03. The retained record shows 3.6 cumulative years of House service, 3.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.

First House service: Jan 3, 2023
District changes: 0
Alignment gap: 30.0
Bioguide record: T000487

THE DISTRICT

HI-02

HI-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+21.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $604.5K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $604,526 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 100.0% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.

2024 presidential margin: D+21.6
Cash on hand: $570,355
Receipts / disbursements: $820,678 / $733,764
Finance through: Jul 19, 2026
Route: Deep blue
Baseline score: 46.5

SCORE ANATOMY

What makes the score

Blue baseline

66.4

District Democratic baseline contributes 66.4 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+21.6.

Primary feasibility

0.0

The retained official 2024 Democratic primary reports 84,978 incumbent votes out of 84,978 contest votes (100.0%). Primary feasibility is the inverse share, 0.0. The candidate identity and CD119 district key are bound; no winner is inferred.

AIPAC support

0.0

Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 0.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.

Incumbent alignment gap

30.0

The retained voting trackers produce a 30.0-point alignment gap.

Cash vulnerability

47.1

The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-07-19) reports $570,355 cash on hand, replacing the $604,526 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.

HOUSE HISTORY

Recorded service

2023–2025HI-02Completed term

2025–nowHI-02Current at source cutoff

Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.8 replaces inferred primary feasibility with 100 minus the directly linked 2024 incumbent vote share; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot

Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record