MO-02 · MODEL v1.14 · 3 INPUTS MEASURED
MO-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 41.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 44.4 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +5.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.2 to 41.9.
THE MEMBER
Ann Wagner is the current Republican House member for MO-02. The retained congressional history records 13.6 cumulative years of House service through the source cutoff.
W000812THE DISTRICT
MO-02 recorded a R+7.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $4,399,245 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
SCORE ANATOMY
The retained 2024 presidential result was R+7.9. A tied district begins at 100 and each Republican margin point subtracts four points.
Not in this score
Not applicable to this Republican-held general-election route; no Democratic-primary value is imputed.
Not in this score
Not used in this route because the retained candidate-level AIPAC model covers the Democratic incumbent field.
Not in this score
Not used in this route because the retained alignment trackers cover Democratic incumbents.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-07-15) reports $4,227,396 cash on hand, replacing the $4,399,245 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
The retained 2024 state-legislative Democratic primaries in this state drew more than one candidate in enough contests to score 32.0 on a scale where a 40% contested share is 100. This is state-level organizing context, not a district measure.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula v0.9 Republican-held route: renormalized 0.45 × competitiveness + 0.20 × cash vulnerability + 0.15 × local context + 0.20 × state Democratic primary contestation (85% of component weight available) × 0.940 coverage multiplier; the former flat 0.70 cap is removed; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record