VA-05 · MODEL v1.14 · 2 INPUTS MEASURED
VA-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 42.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 49.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.5 to 43.3.
THE MEMBER
John J. McGuire III is the current Republican House member for VA-05. The retained congressional history records 1.6 cumulative years of House service through the source cutoff.
M001239THE DISTRICT
VA-05 recorded a R+12.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $565,242 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
SCORE ANATOMY
The retained 2024 presidential result was R+12.3. A tied district begins at 100 and each Republican margin point subtracts four points.
Not in this score
Not applicable to this Republican-held general-election route; no Democratic-primary value is imputed.
Not in this score
Not used in this route because the retained candidate-level AIPAC model covers the Democratic incumbent field.
Not in this score
Not used in this route because the retained alignment trackers cover Democratic incumbents.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-07-15) reports $524,346 cash on hand, replacing the $565,242 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
Not in this score
No retained state-legislative Democratic primary catalog records uncontested contests for this state, so the component is omitted and the available weight is renormalized.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula v0.9 Republican-held route: renormalized 0.45 × competitiveness + 0.20 × cash vulnerability + 0.15 × local context + 0.20 × state Democratic primary contestation (65% of component weight available) × 0.860 coverage multiplier; the former flat 0.70 cap is removed; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record