VA-04 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED
VA-04 scores 75.9 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score -0.1 to 75.8.
THE MEMBER
Jennifer L. McClellan (born 1972) has served in the U.S. House since 2023-03-07. The retained record shows 3.4 cumulative years of House service, 3.4 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.
M001227THE DISTRICT
VA-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+32.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $192.4K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $192,447 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 100.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+32.7.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 57.3 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 52.5 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 42.9-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-07-15) reports $197,426 cash on hand, replacing the $192,447 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record