TX-30 · OPEN SEAT · MODEL v1.14 · 3 INPUTS MEASURED
TX-30 is an open seat: the incumbent has filed for the 2026 Senate race. V0.11 scores it on the structural baseline alone at 81.3 (+6.4 from v0.10).
THE MEMBER
Jasmine Crockett (born 1981) has served in the U.S. House since 2023-01-03. The retained record shows 3.6 cumulative years of House service, 3.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.
C001130THE DISTRICT
TX-30 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+47.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.6M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,611,233 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 100.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+47.0.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 37.6 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 0.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
Not in this score
Incumbent alignment gap is omitted: the FEC candidate master records the incumbent as a 2026 Senate candidate (S6TX00552), so this is an open House seat and the departing incumbent's incumbent alignment gap is not a vulnerability signal. The remaining weights are renormalized.
Not in this score
Cash vulnerability is omitted: the FEC candidate master records the incumbent as a 2026 Senate candidate (S6TX00552), so this is an open House seat and the departing incumbent's cash vulnerability is not a vulnerability signal. The remaining weights are renormalized.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot; v0.11 open seat: incumbent_alignment_gap and cash_vulnerability omitted and weights renormalized
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record