IL-02 · OPEN SEAT · MODEL v1.14 · 3 INPUTS MEASURED
IL-02 is an open seat: the incumbent has filed for the 2026 Senate race. V0.11 scores it on the structural baseline alone at 77.0 (+4.8 from v0.10).
THE MEMBER
Robin L. Kelly (born 1956) has served in the U.S. House since 2013-04-09. The retained record shows 13.3 cumulative years of House service, 13.3 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.
K000385THE DISTRICT
IL-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+33.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.0M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,015,111 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 100.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+33.1.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 23.2 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 0.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
Not in this score
Incumbent alignment gap is omitted: the FEC candidate master records the incumbent as a 2026 Senate candidate (S6IL00474), so this is an open House seat and the departing incumbent's incumbent alignment gap is not a vulnerability signal. The remaining weights are renormalized.
Not in this score
Cash vulnerability is omitted: the FEC candidate master records the incumbent as a 2026 Senate candidate (S6IL00474), so this is an open House seat and the departing incumbent's cash vulnerability is not a vulnerability signal. The remaining weights are renormalized.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot; v0.11 open seat: incumbent_alignment_gap and cash_vulnerability omitted and weights renormalized
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record