MO-01 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED

Wesley Bell

MO-01 scores 72.4 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score +0.9 to 73.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +1.8 to 75.1.

Priority score75.1#1,430 of 5,726

THE MEMBER

Record

Wesley Bell (born 1974) has served in the U.S. House since 2025-01-03. The retained record shows 1.6 cumulative years of House service, 1.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.

First House service: Jan 3, 2025
District changes: 0
Alignment gap: 51.0
Bioguide record: B001324

THE DISTRICT

MO-01

MO-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+57.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.9M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,908,027 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 51.1% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.

2024 presidential margin: D+57.2
Cash on hand: $1,094,094
Receipts / disbursements: $3,561,712 / $2,901,538
Finance through: Jul 15, 2026
Route: AIPAC-supported blue
Baseline score: 92.3

SCORE ANATOMY

What makes the score

Blue baseline

100.0

District Democratic baseline contributes 100.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+57.2.

Primary feasibility

48.9

The retained official 2024 Democratic primary reports 63,521 incumbent votes out of 124,258 contest votes (51.1%). Primary feasibility is the inverse share, 48.9. The candidate identity and CD119 district key are bound; no winner is inferred.

AIPAC support

100.0

Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 100.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.

Incumbent alignment gap

51.0

The retained voting trackers produce a 51.0-point alignment gap.

Cash vulnerability

33.0

The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-07-15) reports $1,094,094 cash on hand, replacing the $1,908,027 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.

HOUSE HISTORY

Recorded service

2025–nowMO-01Current at source cutoff

Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.8 replaces inferred primary feasibility with 100 minus the directly linked 2024 incumbent vote share; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot

Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record