CA-15 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED
CA-15 scores 75.3 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
THE MEMBER
Kevin Mullin (born 1970) has served in the U.S. House since 2023-01-03. The retained record shows 3.6 cumulative years of House service, 3.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.
M001225THE DISTRICT
CA-15 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+47.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $220.9K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $220,935 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 100.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+47.9.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 55.8 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 53.9 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 43.9-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-06-30) reports $219,735 cash on hand, replacing the $220,935 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record