HI House 14 · MODEL v1.14 · 2 INPUTS MEASURED

Elle Cochran

HI House 14 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 86.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.

Priority score86.0#1 of 5,726Tie of 1,298

THE MEMBER

Record

Elle Cochran holds HI state House district 14 as a Republican. The Open States roster is the identity source; the seat is next regularly contested in 2026 on a 2-year term. The Open States roster lists Elle Cochran as Republican, but the 2024 returns show this holder on the D line: either a party switch since that election or a roster error.

Baseline election: Nov 5, 2024
Next election: 2026
Alignment gap: Not in this score
Open States record: ocd-person/f7bd1cdd-c131-47eb-ab96-1a7c0599bfa7

THE DISTRICT

HI House 14

The official state returns record D+12.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.

Own-race margin: D+12.6
Cash on hand: Not reported
Receipts / disbursements: Not reported / Not reported
Finance through: Not reported
Route: Republican-held flip screen
Baseline score: 100.0

SCORE ANATOMY

What makes the score

General-election competitiveness

100.0

The official state returns record D+12.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. A tied district begins at 100 and each Republican margin point subtracts four points.

Cash vulnerability

Not in this score

State campaign-finance filings are not retained, so the weight is omitted.

Local context

Not in this score

County-level local context is joined to House districts only, so the weight is omitted.

State Democratic primary contestation

100.0

Share of the state's latest retained state-legislative Democratic primaries that drew more than one named candidate, scaled so 40% contested equals 100.

CURRENT TERM

Recorded service

2024–nowHI-14Current at source cutoff

Formula renormalized(0.45 × competitiveness + 0.20 × cash vulnerability + 0.15 × local context + 0.20 × state contestation) × (0.6 + 0.4 × 0.65)

Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger