PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#1,48172.8Tie of 3
NC House 56Democratic · D+72.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility48.5
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC House 56 scores 72.8 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+72.6 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+72.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,48472.7Tie of 5
DE House 1Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility48.4
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
DE House 1 scores 72.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,48472.7Tie of 5
HI House 30Democratic · D+38.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility48.3
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 30 scores 72.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+38.3 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+38.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,48972.6Tie of 3
VA-03Democratic · D+34.7 · 33.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility31.1
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap52.4
Cash vulnerability70.8
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
VA-03 scores 73.1 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score -0.5 to 72.6.
District
VA-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+34.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $169.3K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $169,258 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,49272.5
TX-33Democratic · D+33.8 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility29.2
AIPAC support70.0
Incumbent alignment gap71.2
Cash vulnerability46.9
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-33 scores 70.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +1.8 to 72.5.
District
TX-33 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+33.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.0M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,009,480 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,49572.3
KY House 42Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility47.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY House 42 scores 72.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,49672.2Tie of 9
IL-04Democratic · D+28.3 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline93.3
Primary feasibility64.4
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap10.9
Cash vulnerability100.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-04 scores 72.2 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IL-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+28.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $35.8K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $35,836 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,49672.2Tie of 9
NY-12Democratic · D+63.6 · 33.7 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility29.8
AIPAC support29.0
Incumbent alignment gap46.5
Cash vulnerability77.7
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-12 scores 71.2 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +1.0 to 72.2.
District
NY-12 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+63.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $194.6K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $194,552 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,50572.1Tie of 5
MO House 86Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility45.9
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 86 scores 72.1 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,51072.0Tie of 4
MA-07Democratic · D+63.1 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility56.9
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap8.5
Cash vulnerability90.9
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MA-07 scores 70.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-08-12, moving the score +1.3 to 72.0.
District
MA-07 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+63.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $113.0K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $113,018 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,51072.0Tie of 4
MD-03Democratic · D+23.8 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline75.1
Primary feasibility54.5
AIPAC support92.5
Incumbent alignment gap47.7
Cash vulnerability58.6
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MD-03 scores 72.0 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MD-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+23.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $335.8K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $335,826 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,51072.0Tie of 4
MD-07Democratic · D+58.9 · 15.4 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility30.2
AIPAC support92.1
Incumbent alignment gap52.6
Cash vulnerability42.6
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MD-07 scores 72.0 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MD-07 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+58.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $702.8K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $702,810 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,51072.0Tie of 4
GA Senate 5Democratic · D+35.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility45.5
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA Senate 5 scores 72.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+35.2 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+35.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,51471.9Tie of 5
TX-18Democratic · D+39.8 · 0.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility62.9
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap14.1
Cash vulnerability75.3
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-18 scores 71.9 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-18 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+39.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $156.0K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $156,016 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,51471.9Tie of 5
VT-S3Democratic · D+31.2 · 3.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap16.1
Cash vulnerability24.5
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
VT-S3 scores 71.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+31.2 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
VT recorded a D+31.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,616,348 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,51971.8Tie of 3
MD-05Democratic · D+33.3 · 45.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility19.1
AIPAC support78.2
Incumbent alignment gap68.1
Cash vulnerability59.5
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MD-05 scores 69.6 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +2.2 to 71.8.
District
MD-05 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+33.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $623.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $623,675 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,52271.7Tie of 2
DE House 6Democratic · D+31.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility44.5
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
DE House 6 scores 71.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+31.3 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+31.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,52271.7Tie of 2
KY Senate 33Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility44.7
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY Senate 33 scores 71.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,52671.5
GA House 53Republican · R+3.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness84.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 53 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 71.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+3.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,52771.4Tie of 4
MO Senate 13Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility43.3
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 13 scores 71.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,53171.3Tie of 2
CA-34Democratic · D+50.6 · 9.1 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility37.3
AIPAC support93.9
Incumbent alignment gap43.8
Cash vulnerability40.3
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-34 scores 71.3 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-34 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+50.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $781.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $781,726 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,53171.3Tie of 2
NY-25Democratic · D+18.4 · 7.7 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline53.8
Primary feasibility44.9
AIPAC support95.0
Incumbent alignment gap65.0
Cash vulnerability54.4
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-25 scores 71.3 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-25 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+18.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $408.0K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $408,038 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,53371.2Tie of 5
MA-05Democratic · D+45.2 · 12.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility23.2
AIPAC support100.0
Incumbent alignment gap53.8
Cash vulnerability19.4
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MA-05 scores 70.9 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-08-12, moving the score +0.3 to 71.2.
District
MA-05 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+45.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.2M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,212,416 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,53371.2Tie of 5
MO House 78Democratic · D+76.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility42.6
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 78 scores 71.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+76.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+76.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,53871.1Tie of 5
OR-03Democratic · D+46.0 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility60.6
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap14.2
Cash vulnerability73.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OR-03 scores 71.1 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OR-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+46.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $173.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $173,687 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,53871.1Tie of 5
IN House 95Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility42.3
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 95 scores 71.1 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,54371.0Tie of 2
NJ-08Democratic · D+24.2 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline76.7
Primary feasibility45.5
AIPAC support93.0
Incumbent alignment gap56.5
Cash vulnerability43.3
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NJ-08 scores 71.0 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NJ-08 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+24.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $679.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $679,737 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,54371.0Tie of 2
MO House 81Democratic · D+56.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility41.5
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 81 scores 71.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+56.2 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+56.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,54570.9Tie of 5
HI House 50Democratic · D+39.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility41.3
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 50 scores 70.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+39.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+39.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,55070.8Tie of 2
NC Senate 32Democratic · D+40.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility40.9
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC Senate 32 scores 70.8 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+40.8 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+40.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,55270.7
MO House 80Democratic · D+68.4 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility40.6
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 80 scores 70.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+68.4 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+68.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,55370.6Tie of 2
GA-04Democratic · D+52.5 · 19.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility41.3
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap24.0
Cash vulnerability81.4
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA-04 scores 70.6 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
GA-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+52.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $117.9K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $117,906 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,55370.6Tie of 2
TX-09Democratic · D+44.1 · 21.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility33.1
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap27.1
Cash vulnerability88.5
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-09 scores 67.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +3.1 to 70.6.
District
TX-09 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+44.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $219.1K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $219,085 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,55570.5Tie of 14
NC House 45Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility40.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC House 45 scores 70.5 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,56970.4
MI-10Republican · R+6.5 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness73.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability100.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MI-10 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 55.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 63.9 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +8.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2025-12-23, moving the score +15.4 to 70.4.
District
MI-10 recorded a R+6.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $734,681 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#1,57070.3Tie of 2
NY-07Democratic · D+45.9 · 33.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility31.6
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap26.0
Cash vulnerability89.5
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-07 scores 68.1 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +2.2 to 70.3.
District
NY-07 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+45.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $159.6K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $159,566 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,57070.3Tie of 2
KY House 76Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility38.9
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY House 76 scores 70.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,57270.2Tie of 5
GA House 168Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility38.5
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 168 scores 70.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,57270.2Tie of 5
GA House 98Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility38.6
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 98 scores 70.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,57270.2Tie of 5
KY House 34Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility38.7
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY House 34 scores 70.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,57770.1
NC-12Democratic · D+46.2 · 11.7 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility38.8
AIPAC support29.0
Incumbent alignment gap46.5
Cash vulnerability52.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC-12 scores 70.1 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NC-12 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+46.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $456.6K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $456,594 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,57870.0
HI House 29Democratic · D+35.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility38.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 29 scores 70.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+35.3 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+35.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,57969.9Tie of 4
CA-30Democratic · D+41.1 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility51.4
AIPAC support84.6
Incumbent alignment gap33.3
Cash vulnerability51.4
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-30 scores 69.9 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-30 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+41.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $469.3K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $469,254 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,57969.9Tie of 4
IN Senate 10Democratic · D+77.8 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility37.8
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 10 scores 69.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+77.8 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+77.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,58469.7Tie of 2
KY House 77Democratic · D+45.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility36.7
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY House 77 scores 69.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+45.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+45.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,58469.7Tie of 2
TN House 28Democratic · D+74.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility36.7
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 28 scores 69.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+74.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+74.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,58669.6Tie of 2
GA House 92Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility36.3
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 92 scores 69.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,59069.4Tie of 3
NY-05Democratic · D+42.2 · 29.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility8.4
AIPAC support95.0
Incumbent alignment gap61.3
Cash vulnerability19.8
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-05 scores 69.4 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-05 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+42.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.0M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,010,350 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,59069.4Tie of 3
MO House 66Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility35.6
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 66 scores 69.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,59069.4Tie of 3
NC House 27Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility35.8
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC House 27 scores 69.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.