NY-12 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED
NY-12 scores 71.2 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +1.0 to 72.2.
THE MEMBER
Jerrold Nadler (born 1947) has served in the U.S. House since 1992-11-03. The retained record shows 33.7 cumulative years of House service, 33.8 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 3 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.
N000002THE DISTRICT
NY-12 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+63.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $194.6K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $194,552 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 100.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+63.6.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 29.8 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 29.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 46.5-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-06-30) reports $139,682 cash on hand, replacing the $194,552 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record