HI-01 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED

Ed Case

HI-01 scores 62.0 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -5.1 to 56.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-19, moving the score +0.8 to 57.7.

Priority score57.7#2,024 of 5,726Tie of 3

THE MEMBER

Record

Ed Case (born 1952) has served in the U.S. House since 2003-01-07. The retained record shows 11.6 cumulative years of House service, 7.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 1 district change, and 1 material service break.

First House service: Jan 7, 2003
District changes: 1
Alignment gap: 66.8
Bioguide record: C001055

THE DISTRICT

HI-01

HI-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+24.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $773.6K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $773,638 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 92.0% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.

2024 presidential margin: D+24.7
Cash on hand: $599,649
Receipts / disbursements: $1,093,795 / $810,804
Finance through: Jul 19, 2026
Route: Deep blue
Baseline score: 57.6

SCORE ANATOMY

What makes the score

Blue baseline

78.9

District Democratic baseline contributes 78.9 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+24.7.

Primary feasibility

8.0

The retained official 2024 Democratic primary reports 84,114 incumbent votes out of 91,422 contest votes (92.0%). Primary feasibility is the inverse share, 8.0. The candidate identity and CD119 district key are bound; no winner is inferred.

AIPAC support

67.4

Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 67.4 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.

Incumbent alignment gap

66.8

The retained voting trackers produce a 66.8-point alignment gap.

Cash vulnerability

46.1

The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-07-19) reports $599,649 cash on hand, replacing the $773,638 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.

HOUSE HISTORY

Recorded service

2003–2005HI-02Completed term

2005–2007HI-02Completed term

2019–2021HI-01Completed term

2021–2023HI-01Completed term

2023–2025HI-01Completed term

2025–nowHI-01Current at source cutoff

Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.8 replaces inferred primary feasibility with 100 minus the directly linked 2024 incumbent vote share; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot

Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record