MO-05 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED

Emanuel Cleaver

MO-05 scores 59.7 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -1.8 to 57.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, leaving the score unchanged.

Priority score57.9#2,018 of 5,726

THE MEMBER

Record

Emanuel Cleaver (born 1944) has served in the U.S. House since 2005-01-04. The retained record shows 21.6 cumulative years of House service, 21.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.

First House service: Jan 4, 2005
District changes: 0
Alignment gap: 50.4
Bioguide record: C001061

THE DISTRICT

MO-05

MO-05 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+23.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,143,055 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 100.0% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.

2024 presidential margin: D+23.1
Cash on hand: $1,142,882
Receipts / disbursements: $1,336,738 / $1,083,483
Finance through: Jul 15, 2026
Route: AIPAC-supported blue
Baseline score: 66.2

SCORE ANATOMY

What makes the score

Blue baseline

72.5

District Democratic baseline contributes 72.5 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+23.1.

Primary feasibility

0.0

The retained official 2024 Democratic primary reports 65,248 incumbent votes out of 65,248 contest votes (100.0%). Primary feasibility is the inverse share, 0.0. The candidate identity and CD119 district key are bound; no winner is inferred.

AIPAC support

80.1

Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 80.1 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.

Incumbent alignment gap

50.4

The retained voting trackers produce a 50.4-point alignment gap.

Cash vulnerability

32.0

The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-07-15) reports $1,142,882 cash on hand, replacing the $1,143,055 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.

HOUSE HISTORY

Recorded service

2005–2007MO-05Completed term

2007–2009MO-05Completed term

2009–2011MO-05Completed term

2011–2013MO-05Completed term

2013–2015MO-05Completed term

2015–2017MO-05Completed term

2017–2019MO-05Completed term

2019–2021MO-05Completed term

2021–2023MO-05Completed term

2023–2025MO-05Completed term

2025–nowMO-05Current at source cutoff

Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.8 replaces inferred primary feasibility with 100 minus the directly linked 2024 incumbent vote share; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot

Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record