CA-51 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED
CA-51 scores 60.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
THE MEMBER
Sara Jacobs (born 1989) has served in the U.S. House since 2021-01-03. The retained record shows 5.6 cumulative years of House service, 5.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 1 district change, and 0 material service breaks.
J000305THE DISTRICT
CA-51 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+23.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $269.5K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $269,452 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 74.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+23.5.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 51.4 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 0.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 36.7-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-06-30) reports $269,452 cash on hand, replacing the $269,452 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record