PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 22Democratic · D+54.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 22 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+54.7 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+54.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 23Democratic · D+71.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 23 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+71.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+71.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 24Democratic · D+70.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 24 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+70.1 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+70.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 25Democratic · D+53.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 25 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+53.5 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+53.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 26Democratic · D+67.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 26 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+67.5 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+67.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 27Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 27 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 37Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 37 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 45Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 45 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 46Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 46 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 71Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 71 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 72Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 72 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 76Democratic · D+90.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 76 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+90.5 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+90.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 77Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 77 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 79Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 79 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 82Democratic · D+47.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 82 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+47.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+47.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 83Democratic · D+76.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 83 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+76.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+76.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 84Democratic · D+75.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 84 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+75.8 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+75.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 91Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 91 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO House 93Democratic · D+68.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 93 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+68.8 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+68.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO Senate 14Democratic · D+99.9 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 14 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+99.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+99.9 in the 2022 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO Senate 4Democratic · D+48.3 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 4 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+48.3 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+48.3 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
MO Senate 5Democratic · D+77.1 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 5 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+77.1 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+77.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
TN House 51Democratic · D+73.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 51 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+73.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+73.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
TN House 52Democratic · D+38.4 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 52 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+38.4 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+38.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
TN House 54Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 54 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
TN House 55Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 55 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
TN House 58Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 58 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
TN House 59Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 59 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
TN House 85Democratic · D+99.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 85 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+99.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+99.9 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
TN House 87Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 87 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
TN House 88Democratic · D+43.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 88 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+43.7 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+43.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
TN House 90Democratic · D+99.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 90 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+99.7 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+99.7 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
TN House 91Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 91 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
TN House 98Democratic · D+47.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 98 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+47.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+47.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
TN Senate 21Democratic · D+76.7 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN Senate 21 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+76.7 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+76.7 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,84460.2Tie of 122
TN Senate 29Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN Senate 29 scores 60.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2022 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,97259.7Tie of 2
MI-07Republican · R+1.3 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness94.9
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability12.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MI-07 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 59.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 69.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.2 to 59.7.
District
MI-07 recorded a R+1.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,957,329 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#1,97259.7Tie of 2
NY-17Republican · D+0.6 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness100.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.7
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-17 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 59.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 69.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-17 recorded a D+0.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $4,841,306 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#1,97459.6Tie of 5
WA-S1Democratic · D+18.2 · 25.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline52.9
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap67.5
Cash vulnerability78.1
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WA-S1 scores 59.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+18.2 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
WA recorded a D+18.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $136,800 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,97959.5Tie of 5
PA-01Republican · D+0.3 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness100.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 59.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 69.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
PA-01 recorded a D+0.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $6,355,534 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#1,97959.5Tie of 5
ME-S2Republican · D+6.8 · 29.5 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness100.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
ME-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 59.5 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
ME recorded a D+6.8 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $11,038,115 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,98459.3Tie of 4
CA-21Democratic · D+3.8 · 21.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility19.7
AIPAC support94.1
Incumbent alignment gap76.2
Cash vulnerability36.3
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-21 scores 59.3 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-21 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+3.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $937.8K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $937,779 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,98859.2Tie of 5
MO House 17Republican · R+3.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness85.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 17 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 59.2 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+3.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,99359.1Tie of 2
CA-49Democratic · D+7.8 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline11.0
Primary feasibility33.7
AIPAC support94.7
Incumbent alignment gap65.1
Cash vulnerability27.4
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-49 scores 59.1 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-49 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+7.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.4M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,418,237 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,99359.1Tie of 2
TX-34Democratic · R+4.4 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility25.8
AIPAC support95.0
Incumbent alignment gap86.6
Cash vulnerability14.8
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-34 scores 59.1 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-34 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+-4.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.5M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,532,412 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,99559.0Tie of 2
IN-07Democratic · D+41.5 · 18.4 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility8.9
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap24.9
Cash vulnerability45.3
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN-07 scores 62.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -3.7 to 59.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IN-07 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+41.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $621.4K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $621,351 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 91.1% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#1,99758.8Tie of 5
AZ-06Republican · R+0.8 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness97.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability4.1
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AZ-06 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 58.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 68.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-01, leaving the score unchanged.
District
AZ-06 recorded a R+0.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $4,135,163 cash on hand through 2026-07-01. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,00358.6Tie of 2
FL-09Democratic · D+3.5 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility32.1
AIPAC support94.5
Incumbent alignment gap69.8
Cash vulnerability31.2
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-09 scores 58.4 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, moving the score +0.2 to 58.6.
District
FL-09 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+3.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.3M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,268,860 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,00358.6Tie of 2
NJ-07Republican · R+1.2 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness95.3
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability6.9
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NJ-07 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 58.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 68.1 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NJ-07 recorded a R+1.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $3,634,205 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,00558.5Tie of 3
MI-06Democratic · D+23.3 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline73.2
Primary feasibility39.2
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap47.0
Cash vulnerability54.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MI-06 scores 58.2 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.3 to 58.5.
District
MI-06 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+23.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $447.1K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $447,144 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.