IN-07 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED
IN-07 scores 62.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -3.7 to 59.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
THE MEMBER
André Carson (born 1974) has served in the U.S. House since 2008-03-13. The retained record shows 18.4 cumulative years of House service, 18.4 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.
C001072THE DISTRICT
IN-07 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+41.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $621.4K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $621,351 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 91.1% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 100.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+41.5.
The retained official 2024 Democratic primary reports 30,868 incumbent votes out of 33,891 contest votes (91.1%). Primary feasibility is the inverse share, 8.9. The candidate identity and CD119 district key are bound; no winner is inferred.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 0.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 24.9-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-06-30) reports $621,351 cash on hand, replacing the $621,351 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.8 replaces inferred primary feasibility with 100 minus the directly linked 2024 incumbent vote share; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record