KY-03 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED

Morgan McGarvey

KY-03 scores 50.0 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -2.1 to 47.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.

Priority score47.9#2,271 of 5,726Tie of 3

THE MEMBER

Record

Morgan McGarvey (born 1979) has served in the U.S. House since 2023-01-03. The retained record shows 3.6 cumulative years of House service, 3.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.

First House service: Jan 3, 2023
District changes: 0
Alignment gap: 40.9
Bioguide record: M001220

THE DISTRICT

KY-03

KY-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+18.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.8M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,813,760 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 84.1% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.

2024 presidential margin: D+18.9
Cash on hand: $1,813,760
Receipts / disbursements: $1,633,684 / $1,083,341
Finance through: Jun 30, 2026
Route: AIPAC-supported blue
Baseline score: 56.1

SCORE ANATOMY

What makes the score

Blue baseline

55.8

District Democratic baseline contributes 55.8 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+18.9.

Primary feasibility

15.9

The retained official 2024 Democratic primary reports 44,275 incumbent votes out of 52,641 contest votes (84.1%). Primary feasibility is the inverse share, 15.9. The candidate identity and CD119 district key are bound; no winner is inferred.

AIPAC support

66.3

Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 66.3 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.

Incumbent alignment gap

40.9

The retained voting trackers produce a 40.9-point alignment gap.

Cash vulnerability

22.0

The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-06-30) reports $1,813,760 cash on hand, replacing the $1,813,760 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.

HOUSE HISTORY

Recorded service

2023–2025KY-03Completed term

2025–nowKY-03Current at source cutoff

Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.8 replaces inferred primary feasibility with 100 minus the directly linked 2024 incumbent vote share; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot

Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record