OH-S1 · MODEL v1.14 · 3 INPUTS MEASURED
OH-S1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 48.6 with 85% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability, and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
THE MEMBER
Bernie Moreno is the Republican senator in OH Class 1. The retained roster records 1.6 cumulative years of Senate service through the source cutoff; the seat is next contested in 2030.
M001242THE STATE
OH recorded a R+11.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $639,133 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
SCORE ANATOMY
The statewide 2024 presidential result was R+11.2. A tied state begins at 100 and each Republican margin point subtracts four points.
Not in this score
Not applicable to this Republican-held route; no Democratic-primary value is imputed.
Not in this score
Not used in this route; the retained AIPAC model covers the Democratic House field.
Not in this score
Not used in this route because the retained alignment trackers cover the Democratic caucus.
The FEC candidate summary reports $639,133 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
The retained 2026 state-legislative Democratic primaries in this state score 51.0 on a scale where a 40% contested share is 100. This is state-level organizing context, not a seat measure.
SENATE TERM
Formula renormalized(0.45 × competitiveness + 0.20 × cash vulnerability + 0.15 × local context + 0.20 × state contestation) × (0.6 + 0.4 × 0.85)
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record