MA-06 · OPEN SEAT · MODEL v1.14 · 2 INPUTS MEASURED
MA-06 is an open seat: the incumbent has filed for the 2026 Senate race. V0.11 scores it on the structural baseline alone at 51.8 (+2.7 from v0.10).
THE MEMBER
Seth Moulton (born 1978) has served in the U.S. House since 2015-01-06. The retained record shows 11.6 cumulative years of House service, 11.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.
M001196THE DISTRICT
MA-06 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+20.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.9M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,850,338 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 62.7 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+20.7.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 26.2 points and remains incomplete.
Not in this score
AIPAC component is unavailable for this seat; the fallback route does not replace it with zero.
Not in this score
Incumbent alignment gap is omitted: the FEC candidate master records the incumbent as a 2026 Senate candidate (S6MA00296), so this is an open House seat and the departing incumbent's incumbent alignment gap is not a vulnerability signal. The remaining weights are renormalized.
Not in this score
Cash vulnerability is omitted: the FEC candidate master records the incumbent as a 2026 Senate candidate (S6MA00296), so this is an open House seat and the departing incumbent's cash vulnerability is not a vulnerability signal. The remaining weights are renormalized.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot; v0.11 open seat: incumbent_alignment_gap and cash_vulnerability omitted and weights renormalized
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record