AZ-04 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED
AZ-04 scores 48.2 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-01, leaving the score unchanged.
THE MEMBER
Greg Stanton (born 1970) has served in the U.S. House since 2019-01-03. The retained record shows 7.6 cumulative years of House service, 7.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 1 district change, and 0 material service breaks.
S001211THE DISTRICT
AZ-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+6.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.0M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,020,289 cash on hand through 2026-07-01.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 6.7 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+6.7.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 30.4 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 68.5 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 72.5-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-07-01) reports $2,020,289 cash on hand, replacing the $2,020,289 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record