CA-38 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED
CA-38 scores 50.6 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +0.1 to 50.7.
THE MEMBER
Linda T. Sánchez (born 1969) has served in the U.S. House since 2003-01-07. The retained record shows 23.5 cumulative years of House service, 23.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 1 district change, and 0 material service breaks.
S001156THE DISTRICT
CA-38 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+16.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $425.8K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $425,787 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 44.3 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+16.1.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 24.5 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 63.8 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 40.5-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-06-30) reports $415,746 cash on hand, replacing the $425,787 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record