PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#1,69865.9Tie of 3
NJ-11Democratic · D+8.7 · 0.3 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline14.9
Primary feasibility73.6
AIPAC support99.6
Incumbent alignment gap12.6
Cash vulnerability100.0
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NJ-11 scores 65.9 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NJ-11 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+8.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $27.5K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $27,475 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,69865.9Tie of 3
GA Senate 34Democratic · D+63.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility22.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA Senate 34 scores 65.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+63.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+63.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,69865.9Tie of 3
MO House 12Republican · R+0.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness96.4
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 12 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 65.9 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+0.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,70165.8Tie of 4
WI-S3Republican · R+0.9 · 15.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness96.6
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability31.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WI-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 65.8 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
WI recorded a R+0.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,181,533 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,70565.7Tie of 3
MD-02Democratic · D+18.5 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline53.8
Primary feasibility49.0
AIPAC support88.1
Incumbent alignment gap54.6
Cash vulnerability45.5
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MD-02 scores 65.7 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MD-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+18.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $614.3K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $614,275 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,70565.7Tie of 3
GA House 129Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility21.2
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 129 scores 65.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,70865.6Tie of 2
GA House 69Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility21.1
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 69 scores 65.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,70865.6Tie of 2
MO Senate 9Democratic · D+58.6 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility21.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 9 scores 65.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+58.6 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+58.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,71065.5Tie of 6
NC-S3Republican · R+3.2 · 3.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness87.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability51.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 65.5 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
NC recorded a R+3.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $471,373 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,71065.5Tie of 6
IN House 25Republican · R+0.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness99.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 25 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 65.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+0.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,71665.4Tie of 7
CA-10Democratic · D+33.8 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility36.7
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap29.0
Cash vulnerability46.5
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-10 scores 65.4 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-10 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+33.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $586.5K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $586,497 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,71665.4Tie of 7
MN-02 · open seatDemocratic · D+5.8 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline3.3
Primary feasibility64.4
AIPAC support91.5
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
AIPAC-supported blue3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MN-02 is an open seat: the incumbent has filed for the 2026 Senate race. V0.11 scores it on the structural baseline alone at 65.4 (-7.2 from v0.10).
District
MN-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+5.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $23.6K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $23,602 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,71665.4Tie of 7
GA House 177Democratic · D+24.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline76.8
Primary feasibility74.3
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 177 scores 65.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+24.2 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+24.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,71665.4Tie of 7
GA House 61Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility19.9
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 61 scores 65.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,72365.2Tie of 5
TX-07Democratic · D+20.8 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline63.1
Primary feasibility32.0
AIPAC support92.5
Incumbent alignment gap60.9
Cash vulnerability23.4
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-07 scores 65.2 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-07 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+20.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.7M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,702,706 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,72865.1Tie of 3
NJ-10Democratic · D+50.8 · 1.9 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility46.0
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap23.6
Cash vulnerability39.4
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NJ-10 scores 65.1 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NJ-10 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+50.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $814.1K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $814,120 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,72865.1Tie of 3
VA-08Democratic · D+49.7 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility33.1
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap36.8
Cash vulnerability38.8
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
VA-08 scores 65.0 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.1 to 65.1.
District
VA-08 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+49.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $864.4K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $864,385 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,72865.1Tie of 3
VT-S1Democratic · D+31.2 · 19.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap0.7
Cash vulnerability0.0
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
VT-S1 scores 65.1 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+31.2 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
VT recorded a D+31.2 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $22,835,011 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,73165.0Tie of 5
GA House 66Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility18.8
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 66 scores 65.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,73165.0Tie of 5
GA Senate 17Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility18.6
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA Senate 17 scores 65.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,73664.9Tie of 2
IL-05Democratic · D+37.1 · 17.3 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility22.9
AIPAC support33.8
Incumbent alignment gap51.0
Cash vulnerability31.2
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-05 scores 64.9 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IL-05 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+37.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.2M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,187,818 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,73864.8Tie of 2
IL-09Democratic · D+36.6 · 27.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility16.3
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap31.2
Cash vulnerability65.5
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-09 scores 60.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +4.1 to 64.8.
District
IL-09 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+36.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $848.0K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $847,974 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,73864.8Tie of 2
NJ-12Democratic · D+23.9 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline75.5
Primary feasibility59.3
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap19.6
Cash vulnerability100.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NJ-12 scores 64.8 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence.
District
NJ-12 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+23.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $39.4K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $39,378 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,74064.7Tie of 4
GA Senate 28Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility17.3
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA Senate 28 scores 64.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,74464.6Tie of 5
CA-50Democratic · D+29.6 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline98.2
Primary feasibility20.5
AIPAC support29.0
Incumbent alignment gap68.7
Cash vulnerability14.2
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-50 scores 64.6 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-50 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+29.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.6M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,598,276 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,74464.6Tie of 5
TX-32Democratic · D+23.8 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline75.0
Primary feasibility57.9
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap45.5
Cash vulnerability66.8
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-32 scores 64.6 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence.
District
TX-32 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+23.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $230.9K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $230,903 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,74464.6Tie of 5
HI Senate 22Republican · R+9.0 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness64.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation100.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI Senate 22 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 64.6 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+9.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,74964.5
WA-09Democratic · D+41.2 · 29.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility13.3
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap53.6
Cash vulnerability38.0
Deep blue4 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WA-09 scores 63.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +1.0 to 64.5.
District
WA-09 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+41.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.2M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,170,946 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,75064.4
NJ-01Democratic · D+18.7 · 11.7 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline54.9
Primary feasibility23.7
AIPAC support94.7
Incumbent alignment gap69.0
Cash vulnerability16.3
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NJ-01 scores 64.4 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NJ-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+18.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.4M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,365,599 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,75564.2Tie of 6
CA-44Democratic · D+33.8 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility33.6
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap35.8
Cash vulnerability33.1
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-44 scores 64.2 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-44 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+33.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,088,423 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,75564.2Tie of 6
TX-28Democratic · R+7.3 · 21.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility18.0
AIPAC support100.0
Incumbent alignment gap93.0
Cash vulnerability32.3
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-28 scores 64.2 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-28 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+-7.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,129,604 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,75564.2Tie of 6
WA-01Democratic · D+28.7 · 13.7 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline94.8
Primary feasibility24.8
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap56.8
Cash vulnerability32.7
Deep blue4 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WA-01 scores 63.1 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +1.1 to 64.2.
District
WA-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+28.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.6M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,595,476 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,75564.2Tie of 6
GA House 57Democratic · D+57.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility15.4
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 57 scores 64.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+57.7 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+57.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,75564.2Tie of 6
KY House 75Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility15.5
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY House 75 scores 64.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,75564.2Tie of 6
TN House 56Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility15.8
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 56 scores 64.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,76164.1Tie of 2
CA-11Democratic · D+67.7 · 39.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility8.1
AIPAC support66.3
Incumbent alignment gap52.9
Cash vulnerability43.3
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-11 scores 60.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +3.6 to 64.1.
District
CA-11 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+67.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,078,066 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,76164.1Tie of 2
PA-S1Republican · R+1.7 · 1.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
General-election competitiveness93.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability32.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-S1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 64.1 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
PA recorded a R+1.7 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,128,538 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,76364.0Tie of 7
TN-09Democratic · D+43.4 · 19.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility26.3
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap50.7
Cash vulnerability21.7
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN-09 scores 62.0 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score +2.0 to 64.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TN-09 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+43.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.8M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,843,018 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 73.7% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#1,76364.0Tie of 7
NC Senate 14Democratic · D+49.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility14.5
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC Senate 14 scores 64.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+49.8 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+49.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,77063.9
CO-07Democratic · D+15.0 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline39.9
Primary feasibility41.0
AIPAC support94.1
Incumbent alignment gap58.9
Cash vulnerability32.8
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CO-07 scores 63.9 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CO-07 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+15.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,105,388 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,77163.6Tie of 8
DE House 25Democratic · D+29.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline99.2
Primary feasibility15.1
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
DE House 25 scores 63.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+29.8 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+29.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,77163.6Tie of 8
HI House 49Democratic · D+44.3 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility13.4
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 49 scores 63.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+44.3 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+44.3 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,77163.6Tie of 8
KY House 79Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility13.1
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY House 79 scores 63.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,77963.5
CA-16Democratic · D+48.5 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility37.4
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap39.9
Cash vulnerability18.3
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-16 scores 63.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-16 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+48.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.2M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,153,446 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,78063.4Tie of 4
CA-18Democratic · D+29.5 · 31.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline98.0
Primary feasibility18.8
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap42.4
Cash vulnerability44.5
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-18 scores 63.4 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-18 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+29.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $643.3K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $643,341 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,78063.4Tie of 4
CA-42Democratic · D+32.4 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility39.0
AIPAC support56.4
Incumbent alignment gap30.3
Cash vulnerability27.9
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-42 scores 63.4 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-42 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+32.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.4M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,381,467 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,78063.4Tie of 4
CT-01Democratic · D+22.9 · 27.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline71.5
Primary feasibility14.1
AIPAC support85.8
Incumbent alignment gap54.9
Cash vulnerability39.5
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CT-01 scores 62.5 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, moving the score +0.9 to 63.4.
District
CT-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+22.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,080,106 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,78063.4Tie of 4
GA Senate 48Republican · R+7.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness71.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA Senate 48 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 63.4 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+7.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,78463.3Tie of 4
CA-08Democratic · D+43.6 · 16.7 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility23.6
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap42.8
Cash vulnerability31.1
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-08 scores 63.3 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-08 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+43.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.2M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,196,018 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,78463.3Tie of 4
MN-04Democratic · D+35.7 · 25.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility20.0
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap31.9
Cash vulnerability50.1
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MN-04 scores 62.9 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, moving the score +0.4 to 63.3.
District
MN-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+35.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $568.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $568,721 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.