PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#1,59369.3Tie of 5
ME-02Democratic · R+9.1 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility55.8
AIPAC support94.7
Incumbent alignment gap93.4
Cash vulnerability55.0
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
ME-02 scores 73.0 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score -3.7 to 69.3.
District
ME-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+-9.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $126.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $126,730 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,59369.3Tie of 5
DE House 2Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility35.4
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
DE House 2 scores 69.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,59869.2Tie of 3
NY-10Democratic · D+60.4 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility40.6
AIPAC support70.0
Incumbent alignment gap55.1
Cash vulnerability31.8
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-10 scores 69.2 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-10 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+60.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.2M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,158,530 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,59869.2Tie of 3
MO House 67Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility35.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 67 scores 69.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,59869.2Tie of 3
TN House 15Democratic · D+35.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility35.1
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 15 scores 69.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+35.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+35.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,60169.1Tie of 5
GA Senate 35Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility34.4
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA Senate 35 scores 69.1 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,60169.1Tie of 5
IN Senate 3Democratic · D+46.2 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility34.5
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN Senate 3 scores 69.1 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+46.2 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+46.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,60169.1Tie of 5
NC Senate 19Democratic · D+29.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline96.0
Primary feasibility43.8
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC Senate 19 scores 69.1 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+29.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+29.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,60169.1Tie of 5
NC Senate 22Democratic · D+86.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility34.5
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC Senate 22 scores 69.1 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+86.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+86.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,60669.0Tie of 2
VA-11Democratic · D+34.3 · 0.9 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility45.6
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap46.4
Cash vulnerability35.4
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
VA-11 scores 69.0 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, leaving the score unchanged.
District
VA-11 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+34.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $968.2K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $968,203 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,60868.9
MO House 73Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility33.6
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 73 scores 68.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,60968.8Tie of 2
CO-01Democratic · D+56.1 · 29.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility26.1
AIPAC support29.0
Incumbent alignment gap45.0
Cash vulnerability61.8
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CO-01 scores 68.8 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CO-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+56.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $290.4K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $290,389 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,61168.7Tie of 5
CA-07Democratic · D+29.7 · 21.4 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline99.0
Primary feasibility26.4
AIPAC support66.3
Incumbent alignment gap54.0
Cash vulnerability51.5
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-07 scores 68.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-07 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+29.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $467.5K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $467,456 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,61168.7Tie of 5
CA-32Democratic · D+31.3 · 29.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility5.8
AIPAC support95.2
Incumbent alignment gap63.4
Cash vulnerability13.6
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-32 scores 68.7 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-32 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+31.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.7M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,668,480 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,61168.7Tie of 5
CO-02Democratic · D+39.8 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility26.5
AIPAC support94.5
Incumbent alignment gap57.0
Cash vulnerability10.4
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CO-02 scores 68.7 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CO-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+39.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,092,918 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,61168.7Tie of 5
WI-04Democratic · D+51.6 · 21.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility0.5
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap40.1
Cash vulnerability100.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WI-04 scores 77.6 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -8.9 to 68.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, leaving the score unchanged.
District
WI-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+51.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $45.5K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $45,491 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 99.5% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.
#1,61168.7Tie of 5
MO Senate 7Democratic · D+48.9 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility33.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 7 scores 68.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+48.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+48.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,61668.6Tie of 2
PA-05Democratic · D+28.6 · 7.7 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline94.5
Primary feasibility44.1
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap45.4
Cash vulnerability52.4
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-05 scores 68.6 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
PA-05 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+28.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $448.6K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $448,590 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,61868.5Tie of 5
CA-19Democratic · D+34.4 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility19.6
AIPAC support93.9
Incumbent alignment gap68.6
Cash vulnerability0.0
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-19 scores 68.5 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-19 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+34.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $5.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $5,109,558 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,61868.5Tie of 5
NY-15Democratic · D+48.3 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility24.6
AIPAC support95.0
Incumbent alignment gap64.0
Cash vulnerability0.0
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-15 scores 68.5 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-15 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+48.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $14.0M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $13,986,721 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,62368.4Tie of 3
NC Senate 49Democratic · D+38.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility31.7
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC Senate 49 scores 68.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+38.1 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+38.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,62368.4Tie of 3
TN Senate 30Democratic · D+79.5 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility31.8
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN Senate 30 scores 68.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+79.5 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+79.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,62368.4Tie of 3
TN Senate 33Democratic · D+62.8 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility31.5
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN Senate 33 scores 68.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+62.8 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+62.8 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,62668.3Tie of 4
MD-S3Democratic · D+28.5 · 9.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
Blue baseline94.2
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap28.4
Cash vulnerability9.0
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MD-S3 scores 68.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+28.5 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
MD recorded a D+28.5 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $3,298,739 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,62668.3Tie of 4
GA House 96Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility31.4
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 96 scores 68.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,63468.0Tie of 4
NC House 38Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility30.4
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC House 38 scores 68.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,64067.7Tie of 4
DE House 18Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility28.9
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
DE House 18 scores 67.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,64067.7Tie of 4
KY House 41Democratic · D+47.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility29.1
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY House 41 scores 67.7 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+47.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+47.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,64467.6
IL-10Democratic · D+22.0 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline68.2
Primary feasibility26.9
AIPAC support91.7
Incumbent alignment gap73.1
Cash vulnerability23.4
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-10 scores 67.6 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IL-10 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+22.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.7M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,699,007 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,64567.5
AZ-03Democratic · D+39.8 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility50.0
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap25.1
Cash vulnerability48.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AZ-03 scores 67.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-01, leaving the score unchanged.
District
AZ-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+39.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $549.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $549,683 cash on hand through 2026-07-01.
#1,65467.3Tie of 2
GA Senate 43Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility27.5
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA Senate 43 scores 67.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,65467.3Tie of 2
KY House 93Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility27.4
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY House 93 scores 67.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,65667.2
MO House 70Democratic · D+79.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility27.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 70 scores 67.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+79.1 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+79.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,65767.1Tie of 9
NC-02Democratic · D+33.9 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility36.7
AIPAC support66.3
Incumbent alignment gap51.0
Cash vulnerability28.6
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC-02 scores 67.1 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NC-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+33.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.3M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,337,687 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,65767.1Tie of 9
GA House 91Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility26.8
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 91 scores 67.1 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,65767.1Tie of 9
MO House 28Democratic · D+36.4 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility26.8
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 28 scores 67.1 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+36.4 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+36.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,66666.9
NC House 50Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility26.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC House 50 scores 66.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,67366.6Tie of 2
MI-13Democratic · D+41.1 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility27.8
AIPAC support92.5
Incumbent alignment gap57.8
Cash vulnerability0.0
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MI-13 scores 66.8 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score -0.2 to 66.6.
District
MI-13 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+41.1. Incumbent cash on hand is $4.7M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $4,682,993 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,67366.6Tie of 2
GA Senate 41Democratic · D+63.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility24.5
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA Senate 41 scores 66.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+63.6 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+63.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,67566.5Tie of 3
OR-01Democratic · D+37.8 · 14.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility33.2
AIPAC support38.5
Incumbent alignment gap37.3
Cash vulnerability47.1
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OR-01 scores 66.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OR-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+37.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $572.4K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $572,435 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,67866.4Tie of 4
NC House 60Democratic · D+26.4 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline85.6
Primary feasibility57.6
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC House 60 scores 66.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+26.4 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+26.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,68266.3Tie of 3
PA-02Democratic · D+35.7 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility17.0
AIPAC support92.5
Incumbent alignment gap61.6
Cash vulnerability0.0
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
PA-02 scores 66.3 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
PA-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+35.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $5.6M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $5,560,518 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,68266.3Tie of 3
MO House 100Republican · R+0.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness97.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 100 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 66.3 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+0.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,68266.3Tie of 3
NC House 72Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility23.8
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC House 72 scores 66.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,68566.2Tie of 3
CA-35Democratic · D+10.3 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline21.1
Primary feasibility41.7
AIPAC support92.8
Incumbent alignment gap69.0
Cash vulnerability58.4
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-35 scores 66.2 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-35 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+10.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $339.2K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $339,247 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,68566.2Tie of 3
CA-43Democratic · D+49.0 · 35.5 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility26.8
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap30.1
Cash vulnerability63.4
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-43 scores 66.2 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-43 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+49.0. Incumbent cash on hand is $269.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $269,669 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#1,68566.2Tie of 3
NC House 8Democratic · D+28.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline92.4
Primary feasibility40.9
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC House 8 scores 66.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+28.1 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+28.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,68866.1Tie of 5
HI House 13Democratic · D+47.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility22.9
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 13 scores 66.1 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+47.1 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+47.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#1,69366.0Tie of 5
TX-35Democratic · D+33.6 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility51.1
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap18.0
Cash vulnerability46.1
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-35 scores 67.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score -1.5 to 66.0.
District
TX-35 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+33.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $370.8K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $370,839 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
#1,69366.0Tie of 5
KY House 40Democratic · D+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline100.0
Primary feasibility22.6
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY House 40 scores 66.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+100.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.