WA-09 · MODEL v1.14 · 4 INPUTS MEASURED
WA-09 scores 63.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +1.0 to 64.5.
THE MEMBER
Adam Smith (born 1965) has served in the U.S. House since 1997-01-07. The retained record shows 29.5 cumulative years of House service, 29.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.
S000510THE DISTRICT
WA-09 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+41.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.2M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,170,946 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 100.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+41.2.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 13.3 points and remains incomplete.
Not in this score
AIPAC component is unavailable for this seat; the fallback route does not replace it with zero.
The retained voting trackers produce a 53.6-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-07-15) reports $869,549 cash on hand, replacing the $1,170,946 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record