CA-11 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED
CA-11 scores 60.5 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +3.6 to 64.1.
THE MEMBER
Nancy Pelosi (born 1940) has served in the U.S. House since 1987-01-06. The retained record shows 39.5 cumulative years of House service, 39.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 3 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.
P000197THE DISTRICT
CA-11 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+67.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,078,066 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 100.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+67.7.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 8.1 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 66.3 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 52.9-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-06-30) reports $680,213 cash on hand, replacing the $2,078,066 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record