NJ-12 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED
NJ-12 scores 64.8 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence.
THE MEMBER
Bonnie Watson Coleman (born 1945) has served in the U.S. House since 2015-01-06. The retained record shows 11.6 cumulative years of House service, 11.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.
W000822THE DISTRICT
NJ-12 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+23.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $39.4K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $39,378 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 75.5 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+23.9.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 59.3 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 0.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 19.6-point alignment gap.
The published release reports $39,378 cash on hand. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record