CT-01 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED
CT-01 scores 62.5 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, moving the score +0.9 to 63.4.
THE MEMBER
John B. Larson (born 1948) has served in the U.S. House since 1999-01-06. The retained record shows 27.5 cumulative years of House service, 27.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.
L000557THE DISTRICT
CT-01 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+22.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,080,106 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 71.5 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+22.9.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 14.1 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 85.8 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 54.9-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-07-22) reports $809,903 cash on hand, replacing the $1,080,106 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record