WI-04 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED

Gwen Moore

WI-04 scores 77.6 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score -8.9 to 68.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, leaving the score unchanged.

Priority score68.7#1,611 of 5,726Tie of 5

THE MEMBER

Record

Gwen Moore (born 1951) has served in the U.S. House since 2005-01-04. The retained record shows 21.6 cumulative years of House service, 21.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.

First House service: Jan 4, 2005
District changes: 0
Alignment gap: 40.1
Bioguide record: M001160

THE DISTRICT

WI-04

WI-04 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+51.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $45.5K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $45,491 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 99.5% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.

2024 presidential margin: D+51.6
Cash on hand: $28,561
Receipts / disbursements: $1,070,659 / $1,064,346
Finance through: Jul 22, 2026
Route: Deep blue
Baseline score: 70.2

SCORE ANATOMY

What makes the score

Blue baseline

100.0

District Democratic baseline contributes 100.0 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+51.6.

Primary feasibility

0.5

The retained official 2024 Democratic primary reports 85,017 incumbent votes out of 85,428 contest votes (99.5%). Primary feasibility is the inverse share, 0.5. The candidate identity and CD119 district key are bound; no winner is inferred.

AIPAC support

0.0

Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 0.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.

Incumbent alignment gap

40.1

The retained voting trackers produce a 40.1-point alignment gap.

Cash vulnerability

100.0

The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-07-22) reports $28,561 cash on hand, replacing the $45,491 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.

HOUSE HISTORY

Recorded service

2005–2007WI-04Completed term

2007–2009WI-04Completed term

2009–2011WI-04Completed term

2011–2013WI-04Completed term

2013–2015WI-04Completed term

2015–2017WI-04Completed term

2017–2019WI-04Completed term

2019–2021WI-04Completed term

2021–2023WI-04Completed term

2023–2025WI-04Completed term

2025–nowWI-04Current at source cutoff

Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.8 replaces inferred primary feasibility with 100 minus the directly linked 2024 incumbent vote share; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot

Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record