PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#2,75230.3Tie of 10
NC-14Republican · R+15.1 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness39.7
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability25.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC-14 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 30.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 35.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +5.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NC-14 recorded a R+15.1 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,581,992 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,75230.3Tie of 10
GA House 103Republican · R+21.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness15.6
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 103 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 30.3 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+21.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,75230.3Tie of 10
GA House 22Republican · R+21.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness15.6
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 22 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 30.3 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+21.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,76230.2Tie of 3
NM-03Democratic · D+5.2 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.8
Primary feasibility43.1
AIPAC support29.0
Incumbent alignment gap40.0
Cash vulnerability43.7
AIPAC-supported blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NM-03 scores 30.2 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NM-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+5.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $667.0K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $666,975 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,76230.2Tie of 3
IL-S2Democratic · D+10.9 · 29.5 years in Senate · next election 2026
Blue baseline23.6
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap48.1
Cash vulnerability34.9
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-S2 scores 30.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+10.9 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
IL recorded a D+10.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,001,533 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,76729.9Tie of 6
TX-S1Republican · R+13.7 · 13.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
General-election competitiveness45.3
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability11.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-S1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 29.9 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
TX recorded a R+13.7 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $2,964,805 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,77329.8
IN House 4Republican · R+15.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness39.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 4 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 29.8 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+15.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,77429.6Tie of 6
TN-07Republican · R+22.3 · 0.7 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness10.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability69.1
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN-07 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 28.2. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 30.0 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +11.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-17, moving the score +1.4 to 29.6.
District
TN-07 recorded a R+22.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $276,506 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,78029.4Tie of 2
NC-09Republican · R+15.8 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness36.6
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability28.7
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC-09 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 29.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 34.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +5.2. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NC-09 recorded a R+15.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,335,132 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,78029.4Tie of 2
TX-02Republican · R+23.8 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness4.9
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability100.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 29.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 34.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +9.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-02 recorded a R+23.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $24,925 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,78329.2Tie of 3
FL-27Republican · R+14.7 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness41.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability17.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-27 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 29.2. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 34.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, leaving the score unchanged.
District
FL-27 recorded a R+14.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,266,603 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,79028.9Tie of 4
IN House 88Republican · R+15.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness37.6
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 88 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 28.9 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+15.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,79428.7Tie of 4
MO-S1Republican · R+18.4 · 7.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
General-election competitiveness26.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability38.3
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO-S1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 28.7 with 85% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability, and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
State
MO recorded a R+18.4 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $855,925 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,80228.5
NY-02Republican · R+13.9 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness44.3
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability8.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 28.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 33.1 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-02 recorded a R+13.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $3,458,915 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,80328.4Tie of 4
FL-S3Republican · R+13.1 · 1.5 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness47.6
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 28.4 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
FL recorded a R+13.1 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $8,491,175 cash on hand through 2026-07-29.
#2,80728.3
UT-03Republican · R+19.3 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness22.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability55.6
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
UT-03 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 34.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 40.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +8.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score -6.4 to 28.3.
District
UT-03 recorded a R+19.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $125,202 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,80828.2Tie of 6
AK-S2Republican · R+13.1 · 11.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness47.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AK-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 28.2 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
AK recorded a R+13.1 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $7,295,069 cash on hand through 2026-07-29.
#2,80828.2Tie of 6
DE House 27Democratic · D+12.4 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline29.6
Primary feasibility40.3
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
DE House 27 scores 28.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+12.4 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+12.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,81428.1Tie of 5
GA House 25Republican · R+22.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness12.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 25 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 28.1 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+22.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,83027.6
IL-S3Democratic · D+10.9 · 9.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
Blue baseline23.6
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap58.2
Cash vulnerability4.1
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-S3 scores 27.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+10.9 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
IL recorded a D+10.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $4,131,816 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,83127.5Tie of 7
OH-14Republican · R+17.9 · 13.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness28.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability10.2
State Democratic primary contestation51.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OH-14 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 27.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 29.3 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +10.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OH-14 recorded a R+17.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $3,121,595 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,83827.4
IL-11Democratic · D+11.4 · 16.4 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline25.7
Primary feasibility17.3
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap50.4
Cash vulnerability15.0
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-11 scores 27.4 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IL-11 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+11.4. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.5M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,505,288 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,83927.3Tie of 2
SC-04Republican · R+23.6 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness5.7
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability90.6
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
SC-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 27.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 31.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +8.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
SC-04 recorded a R+23.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $77,225 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,84127.2Tie of 7
MO House 50Democratic · D+12.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline28.0
Primary feasibility39.9
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 50 scores 27.2 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+12.0 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+12.0 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,84827.1Tie of 5
AZ-02Republican · R+15.0 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness40.1
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability12.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AZ-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 27.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 31.5 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-01, leaving the score unchanged.
District
AZ-02 recorded a R+15.0 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,841,745 cash on hand through 2026-07-01. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,84827.1Tie of 5
AZ-05Republican · R+20.0 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness20.1
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability57.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AZ-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 25.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 29.9 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +1.4 to 27.1.
District
AZ-05 recorded a R+20.0 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $458,878 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,85327.0
WA-03Democratic · R+3.3 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility29.4
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap91.9
Cash vulnerability19.2
Deep blue4 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WA-03 scores 24.9 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +2.1 to 27.0.
District
WA-03 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+-3.3. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.9M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,905,263 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,85426.9Tie of 3
TX-10Republican · R+24.8 · 21.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.7
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability100.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-10 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 24.8 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-30, moving the score +5.6 to 26.9.
District
TX-10 recorded a R+24.8 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $131,069 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,85426.9Tie of 3
UT-02Republican · R+20.3 · 2.7 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness18.7
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability59.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
UT-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 33.2. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 38.6 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +8.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score -6.3 to 26.9.
District
UT-02 recorded a R+20.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $107,021 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,85426.9Tie of 3
GA Senate 56Republican · R+22.5 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness10.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA Senate 56 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 26.9 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+22.5 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,86326.7Tie of 2
CA-48Republican · R+15.3 · 23.5 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness38.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability13.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-48 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 29.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 34.3 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score -2.8 to 26.7.
District
CA-48 recorded a R+15.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,644,616 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,86326.7Tie of 2
GA House 120Republican · R+22.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness9.6
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 120 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 26.7 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+22.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,86526.5Tie of 14
IA-04Republican · R+31.5 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability100.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IA-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 8.3. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 9.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +2.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +18.2 to 26.5.
District
IA-04 recorded a R+31.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,170,394 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,86526.5Tie of 14
UT-04Republican · R+26.7 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability100.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
UT-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 20.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 24.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +5.7 to 26.5.
District
UT-04 recorded a R+26.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $133,429 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,86526.5Tie of 14
HI House 38Republican · R+43.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation100.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 38 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 26.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+43.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,87926.4
NC-08Republican · R+19.4 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness22.5
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability49.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NC-08 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 26.4. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 30.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +6.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NC-08 recorded a R+19.4 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $517,853 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,88026.2Tie of 2
IN House 40Republican · R+16.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness33.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 40 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 26.2 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+16.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,88226.1Tie of 6
NY-22Democratic · D+7.7 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline10.6
Primary feasibility38.9
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap52.2
Cash vulnerability21.7
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NY-22 scores 26.1 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NY-22 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+7.7. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.8M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,842,997 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,88826.0
GA House 126Democratic · D+15.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline43.2
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 126 scores 26.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+15.8 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+15.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,88925.9Tie of 5
OR-05Democratic · D+8.5 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline14.2
Primary feasibility35.3
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap52.9
Cash vulnerability13.3
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OR-05 scores 25.9 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OR-05 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+8.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.7M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,715,860 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,88925.9Tie of 5
OR-S2Democratic · D+14.3 · 17.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
Blue baseline37.2
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap8.8
Cash vulnerability0.0
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OR-S2 scores 25.9 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+14.3 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
OR recorded a D+14.3 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $6,828,404 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,89425.8Tie of 5
CA-23Republican · R+16.9 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness32.6
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability24.2
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-23 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 25.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 30.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-23 recorded a R+16.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,644,222 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,89425.8Tie of 5
MO-S3Republican · R+18.4 · 3.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness26.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability25.2
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 25.8 with 85% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability, and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
State
MO recorded a R+18.4 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,567,747 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,89925.7
TX-24Republican · R+15.5 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness37.9
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability12.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-24 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 25.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 29.9 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-24 recorded a R+15.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,873,013 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,90225.5Tie of 4
AR-02Republican · R+15.5 · 11.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness37.9
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability11.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AR-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 25.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 29.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
AR-02 recorded a R+15.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,967,541 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,90225.5Tie of 4
GA House 111Republican · R+23.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness7.6
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 111 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 25.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+23.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,90625.3Tie of 5
FL-05Republican · R+21.4 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness14.3
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability63.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 22.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 25.6 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +5.5. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, moving the score +3.3 to 25.3.
District
FL-05 recorded a R+21.4 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $475,360 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,90625.3Tie of 5
OH-06Republican · R+33.7 · 2.1 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability63.4
State Democratic primary contestation51.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OH-06 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 25.0. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 26.6 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +14.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +0.3 to 25.3.
District
OH-06 recorded a R+33.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $284,711 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,90625.3Tie of 5
GA House 47Republican · R+23.2 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness7.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 47 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 25.3 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+23.2 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,91125.2
NE-S1Republican · R+20.5 · 13.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
General-election competitiveness18.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability54.4
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NE-S1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 25.2 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
NE recorded a R+20.5 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $408,031 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.