AL-02 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED

Shomari Figures

AL-02 scores 32.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.8 replaces the inferred primary component with direct 2024 contest evidence, moving the score +1.6 to 34.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-22, leaving the score unchanged.

Priority score34.3#2,641 of 5,726Tie of 7

THE MEMBER

Record

Shomari Figures (born 1985) has served in the U.S. House since 2025-01-03. The retained record shows 1.6 cumulative years of House service, 1.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 0 district changes, and 0 material service breaks.

First House service: Jan 3, 2025
District changes: 0
Alignment gap: 53.9
Bioguide record: F000481

THE DISTRICT

AL-02

AL-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+8.2. Incumbent cash on hand is $655.7K as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $655,662 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. The directly linked 2024 Democratic primary gives the incumbent 43.4% of retained contest votes; this changes primary feasibility without making a winner or nomination claim.

2024 presidential margin: D+8.2
Cash on hand: $662,600
Receipts / disbursements: $1,355,789 / $716,297
Finance through: Jul 22, 2026
Route: Deep blue
Baseline score: 26.0

SCORE ANATOMY

What makes the score

Blue baseline

12.9

District Democratic baseline contributes 12.9 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+8.2.

Primary feasibility

56.6

The retained official 2024 Democratic primary reports 24,979 incumbent votes out of 57,518 contest votes (43.4%). Primary feasibility is the inverse share, 56.6. The candidate identity and CD119 district key are bound; no winner is inferred.

AIPAC support

0.0

Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 0.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.

Incumbent alignment gap

53.9

The retained voting trackers produce a 53.9-point alignment gap.

Cash vulnerability

43.9

The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-07-22) reports $662,600 cash on hand, replacing the $655,662 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.

HOUSE HISTORY

Recorded service

2025–nowAL-02Current at source cutoff

Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.8 replaces inferred primary feasibility with 100 minus the directly linked 2024 incumbent vote share; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot

Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record