CA-06 · MODEL v1.14 · 5 INPUTS MEASURED
CA-06 scores 35.7 on the expanded model: AIPAC-supported blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +0.1 to 35.8.
THE MEMBER
Ami Bera (born 1965) has served in the U.S. House since 2013-01-03. The retained record shows 13.6 cumulative years of House service, 13.6 in the current uninterrupted stretch, 1 district change, and 0 material service breaks.
B001287THE DISTRICT
CA-06 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+13.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.9M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,873,372 cash on hand through 2024-12-31.
SCORE ANATOMY
District Democratic baseline contributes 35.5 points; the retained 2024 presidential margin is D+13.9.
Current partial feasibility evidence contributes 23.5 points and remains incomplete.
Retained FEC AIPAC evidence contributes 29.0 points; tracker labels are context only and are not double counted.
The retained voting trackers produce a 65.7-point alignment gap.
The FEC candidate summary snapshot (2026-06-30) reports $1,830,338 cash on hand, replacing the $1,873,372 release aggregate. The inverse log scale is 100 at $50,000 or less and 0 at $5 million or more.
HOUSE HISTORY
Formula 0.65 × structural baseline + 0.20 × incumbent alignment gap + 0.15 × cash vulnerability; v0.10 refreshes cash vulnerability from the FEC candidate summary snapshot
Source cutoff Aug 4, 2026 · How the score is built · Source ledger · Factual seat record