PRIORITY INDEX · MODEL v1.14 · PUBLISHED Sep 30, 2026 · HOUSE SOURCE CUTOFF Aug 4, 2026
Where the field bends.
430 House seats, 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 5,146 state-legislative seats in 36 states, ordered by how much reason the retained evidence gives to investigate each one. A score is a research priority, not a forecast.
This view opens on seats scored on two or more inputs. 4,444 seats carry a single input and often tie; choose “Any evidence” under Evidence to include them. How the score is built
5,726seats scored1,282with two or more inputs
- Seats in this view
- 1,282
- Score range
- 86.0 – 0.0
- Three or more inputs
- 306
- Republican-held
- 747
Index rank / scoreSeat / incumbentWhat the score is made ofRoute / evidence
#2,91724.9Tie of 2
MD-01Republican · R+16.9 · 15.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness32.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability21.5
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MD-01 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 24.9. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 29.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MD-01 recorded a R+16.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,853,603 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,91724.9Tie of 2
AL-S2Republican · R+30.5 · 5.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability93.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
AL-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 24.9 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
AL recorded a R+30.5 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $66,590 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,92524.7
MO Senate 34Republican · R+18.2 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness27.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 34 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 24.7 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+18.2 in the 2022 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,92624.6Tie of 4
GA-03Republican · R+29.7 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability32.1
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA-03 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 24.9. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 26.5 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +19.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score -0.3 to 24.6.
District
GA-03 recorded a R+29.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,076,948 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,92624.6Tie of 4
IN-04Republican · R+29.3 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability86.9
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 24.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 26.2 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +9.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IN-04 recorded a R+29.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $91,561 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,92624.6Tie of 4
OH-08Republican · R+23.7 · 10.2 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness5.2
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability48.7
State Democratic primary contestation51.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OH-08 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 24.6. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 26.2 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +13.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OH-08 recorded a R+23.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $529,910 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,93424.3Tie of 3
HI House 47Democratic · D+15.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline40.4
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
HI House 47 scores 24.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+15.1 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+15.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,93724.2
MO-GovRepublican · R+18.4 · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness26.4
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO-Gov enters through the Republican-held flip route at 24.2 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
State
MO recorded a R+18.4 presidential margin statewide in 2024. State campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,93824.1Tie of 5
IN-03Republican · R+31.2 · 7.7 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability84.5
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN-03 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 24.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 25.6 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +9.3. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IN-03 recorded a R+31.2 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $101,923 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,93824.1Tie of 5
OK-02Republican · R+55.6 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability90.9
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OK-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 24.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 28.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +8.2. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OK-02 recorded a R+55.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $76,064 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,93824.1Tie of 5
GA Senate 23Republican · R+23.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness5.2
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA Senate 23 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 24.1 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+23.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,94324.0Tie of 4
TN House 30Republican · R+19.4 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness22.4
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 30 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 24.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+19.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,94723.8Tie of 2
GA-08Republican · R+30.6 · 15.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability28.4
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA-08 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 23.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 25.3 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +18.8. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
GA-08 recorded a R+30.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,349,452 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,94723.8Tie of 2
MO House 35Democratic · D+14.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline39.6
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 35 scores 23.8 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+14.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+14.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,96123.6
TN Senate 20Democratic · D+14.8 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
Blue baseline39.2
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN Senate 20 scores 23.6 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+14.8 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+14.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,96223.5
TX-31Republican · R+23.3 · 23.5 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness6.9
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability73.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-31 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 23.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 27.3 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.0. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-31 recorded a R+23.3 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $170,827 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,97423.3
NV-S1Democratic · R+3.1 · 7.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap91.9
Cash vulnerability32.7
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NV-S1 scores 23.3 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a R+3.1 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
NV recorded a R+3.1 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $1,106,850 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,97523.2Tie of 2
FL-21Republican · R+16.6 · 9.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness33.8
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability11.6
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
FL-21 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 23.2. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 27.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-29, leaving the score unchanged.
District
FL-21 recorded a R+16.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,903,162 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,97523.2Tie of 2
MO House 20Republican · R+18.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness24.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation32.0
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO House 20 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 23.2 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+18.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,98023.0Tie of 9
IL-06Democratic · D+5.5 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline2.0
Primary feasibility34.6
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap54.5
Cash vulnerability29.5
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IL-06 scores 23.0 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
IL-06 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+5.5. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.3M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,285,018 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,98023.0Tie of 9
MT-S1Republican · R+19.9 · 1.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
General-election competitiveness20.3
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability41.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MT-S1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 23.0 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
MT recorded a R+19.9 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $746,029 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#2,98023.0Tie of 9
TN House 13Republican · R+19.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness20.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 13 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 23.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+19.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,98922.9Tie of 2
OH-02Republican · R+47.6 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability52.6
State Democratic primary contestation51.0
Republican-held flip3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OH-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 22.9. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 85% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 24.4 is scaled by 0.940, moving the score +13.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OH-02 recorded a R+47.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $442,977 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#2,98922.9Tie of 2
IN House 36Republican · R+18.1 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness27.6
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation24.5
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
IN House 36 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 22.9 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+18.1 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#2,99722.5Tie of 4
OK-05Republican · R+17.7 · 5.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness29.1
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability19.7
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
OK-05 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 22.5. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 26.2 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.7. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
OK-05 recorded a R+17.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,021,981 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,00122.4Tie of 2
KY House 57Democratic · D+10.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline23.2
Primary feasibility32.7
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KY House 57 scores 22.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+10.8 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+10.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,00322.3
KS-02Republican · R+19.7 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness21.3
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability36.3
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KS-02 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.8. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 25.4 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +4.6. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score +0.5 to 22.3.
District
KS-02 recorded a R+19.7 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $1,015,793 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,00822.1
GA House 37Democratic · D+11.4 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
Blue baseline25.6
Primary feasibility26.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 37 scores 22.1 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+11.4 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+11.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,00922.0Tie of 7
CT-05Democratic · D+5.6 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline2.3
Primary feasibility36.1
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap44.8
Cash vulnerability33.2
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CT-05 scores 22.0 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CT-05 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+5.6. Incumbent cash on hand is $1.1M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $1,084,158 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,01621.8Tie of 4
WA-08Democratic · D+5.8 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline3.1
Primary feasibility25.5
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap71.5
Cash vulnerability7.7
Deep blue4 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
WA-08 scores 21.9 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-07-15, moving the score -0.1 to 21.8.
District
WA-08 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+5.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $3.5M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $3,450,508 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,02021.7Tie of 2
CA-27Democratic · D+3.9 · 1.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility35.9
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap62.6
Cash vulnerability14.6
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
CA-27 scores 21.7 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
CA-27 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+3.9. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.6M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,554,917 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,02221.6Tie of 2
NM-02Democratic · R+1.8 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
Blue baseline0.0
Primary feasibility34.0
AIPAC support0.0
Incumbent alignment gap62.8
Cash vulnerability16.1
Deep blue5 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NM-02 scores 21.6 on the expanded model: deep-blue structure, incumbent alignment, and reported cash-on-hand evidence. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
NM-02 had a retained 2024 presidential Democratic margin of D+-1.8. Incumbent cash on hand is $2.4M as of 2026-08-04. The incumbent reported $2,378,703 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,02221.6Tie of 2
TN House 27Republican · R+20.4 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness18.4
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation40.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TN House 27 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.6 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+20.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,02421.5Tie of 3
GA House 100Republican · R+24.8 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.8
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 100 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.5 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+24.8 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,02721.4
MO Senate 19Democratic · D+13.9 own race · 4.0-year term · next election 2028
Blue baseline35.6
Primary feasibility0.0
Incumbent alignment gapNot in this score
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Democratic incumbent2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MO Senate 19 scores 21.4 on the Democratic incumbent route with 65% of the component weight available: the own-race D+13.9 baseline and retained primary evidence. No state finance or alignment evidence is retained.
District
The official state returns record D+13.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,03121.2Tie of 5
MS-04Republican · R+42.5 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability80.4
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
MS-04 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.2. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 24.7 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +7.1. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
MS-04 recorded a R+42.5 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $123,359 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,03121.2Tie of 5
TX-21Republican · R+23.6 · 7.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness5.4
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability67.8
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-21 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 7.7. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 9.0 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +1.9. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, moving the score +13.5 to 21.2.
District
TX-21 recorded a R+23.6 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,277,317 cash on hand through 2024-12-31. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,03121.2Tie of 5
KS-S2Republican · R+16.1 · 5.6 years in Senate · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness35.5
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KS-S2 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.2 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
KS recorded a R+16.1 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $5,388,078 cash on hand through 2026-07-15.
#3,03121.2Tie of 5
KS-S3Republican · R+16.1 · 15.6 years in Senate · next election 2028
General-election competitiveness35.5
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability0.0
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
KS-S3 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.2 with 65% of the component weight available: statewide competitiveness, incumbent cash vulnerability.
State
KS recorded a R+16.1 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $5,757,900 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,03621.1
TX-15Republican · R+17.9 · 3.6 years in House · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness28.6
Democratic primaryNot in this score
AIPAC supportNot in this score
Incumbent alignmentNot in this score
Cash vulnerability15.4
State Democratic primary contestationNot in this score
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
TX-15 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.1. V0.9 replaces the flat 0.70 cap with the same partial-coverage rule the Democratic route uses: 65% of the route's evidence is available, so the weighted mean of 24.5 is scaled by 0.860, moving the score +3.4. V0.10 refreshes incumbent finance from the FEC candidate summary through 2026-06-30, leaving the score unchanged.
District
TX-15 recorded a R+17.9 presidential margin in 2024. The incumbent reported $2,463,323 cash on hand through 2026-06-30. This route surfaces potentially competitive Republican-held districts without inventing Democratic-primary, AIPAC, or alignment evidence.
#3,03721.0Tie of 110
NM-S1Democratic · D+6.0 · 13.6 years in Senate · next election 2030
Blue baseline4.0
Primary feasibilityNot in this score
Incumbent alignment gap55.9
Cash vulnerability48.0
Democratic incumbent3 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
NM-S1 scores 21.0 on the Democratic incumbent route with 100% of the component weight available: a D+6.0 statewide baseline, tracker alignment, and reported cash on hand. Senate primary feasibility is not measured.
State
NM recorded a D+6.0 presidential margin statewide in 2024. The senator reported $547,929 cash on hand through 2026-06-30.
#3,03721.0Tie of 110
GA House 1Republican · R+60.7 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 1 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+60.7 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,03721.0Tie of 110
GA House 10Republican · R+65.9 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 10 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+65.9 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,03721.0Tie of 110
GA House 104Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 104 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,03721.0Tie of 110
GA House 11Republican · R+65.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 11 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+65.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,03721.0Tie of 110
GA House 112Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 112 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,03721.0Tie of 110
GA House 114Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 114 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,03721.0Tie of 110
GA House 118Republican · R+33.6 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 118 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+33.6 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,03721.0Tie of 110
GA House 119Republican · R+100.0 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 119 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+100.0 in the 2024 general election, which was uncontested. That race was uncontested, so the margin is the maximum. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.
#3,03721.0Tie of 110
GA House 12Republican · R+63.4 own race · 2.0-year term · next election 2026
General-election competitiveness0.0
Cash vulnerabilityNot in this score
Local contextNot in this score
State Democratic primary contestation79.3
Republican-held flip2 inputs measured
Why it ranks here
Score
GA House 12 enters through the Republican-held flip route at 21.0 with 65% of the component weight available: own-race competitiveness and state-level Democratic primary contestation.
District
The official state returns record R+63.4 in the 2024 general election for this seat. The margin here is the seat's own race, not a presidential overlay; state campaign-finance filings are not retained.